Hurricane Isaias, barreling across the Gulf's open waters as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph on Friday morning, is expected to soon head toward states along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center said.
The system is forecast to turn north and begin its approach to the Gulf Coast on Friday afternoon, making landfall within the warning area late Friday night or early Saturday, the NHC said.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, east to the Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida.
Tropical storm warnings are also in place from east of Ocean Springs to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line in Louisiana and east of the Bay/Gulf County Line to the Aucilla River in Florida.
"Isaias is likely to ... remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight," NHC forecasters said in their Friday, 8 a.m., update.
Though it's predicted to be a Category 2 storm when it makes landfall, the system could continue to flirt with Category 3 status later on Friday, AccuWeather forecasters said.
"There is a chance the storm peaks as a Category 3, or major hurricane, while over the central Gulf," AccuWeather chief meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned.
"The only inhibiting factor will be varying amounts of wind shear," which tends to disrupt the circulation of tropical storms and hurricanes, preventing them from strengthening, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said, adding, "Our forecast track has the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening. Since Isaias will be moving along with wind shear, in part, the inhibiting effect might be reduced."
Storm surge warnings are in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwanee River in Florida, NHC said. A storm surge watch is also in place from the Suwanee River to Yankeetown, Florida.
In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties on Tuesday night, before Isaias formed, warning that impacts from the storm could threaten portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend area. DeSantis later amended the state of emergency to include two additional counties, totaling 27 in northern Florida.
Fox 13's Paul Dellegatto said that Isaias will likely make landfall near the Florida/Alabama line on Friday night.
"Environmental conditions favor intensification before a dramatic increase in vertical wind shear weakens the storm before landfall. Regardless of any weakening, Isaias will be a formidable storm at landfall," he wrote in a social media post.
Though the Tampa Bay area won't see any impacts from the storm, a coastal flood advisory is in effect for much of Florida's west coast, including from the Fort Myers area north to Levy County, the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay office said.
The Tampa Bay area and the west coast can expect tides running 1 to 3 feet above normal, "especially during the new moon high tide cycles as the storm passes well west of us," Dellegatto wrote in his post.
Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay 28, stressed that the possibility of coastal flooding in the Tampa Bay area isn't the same as storm surge.
"A surge is NOT expected in our area from Isaias. There are no surge watches or warnings for our coast. The NWS has placed us under a "Coastal Flood Advisory" for the POSSIBILITY of seeing high tides that are 1-3' above normal," Phillips wrote in a social media post. "This may cause flooding in some of our lowest lying areas. This is not Helene or a Helene track; Isaias will be MUCH farther away from us and will be significantly weaker. It'll also be weakening before landfall. All of this adds up to not much for us. Higher tides with a storm in the Gulf are not unusual as the system will churn up quite a bit of water."
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