Coronavirus Could Push GA Hospitals Beyond Capacity: Study

ATLANTA, GA — More than 50 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed overnight, bringing the total cases in Georgia as of Wednesday to nearly 200.

Across the state, there have been 1,065 tests done in a commercial lab, with 104 coming in positive for the virus. The Department of Public Health Lab has done 443 tests, and had 93 positives.

Georgia's officials have taken a number of measures to stem the spread of the respiratory disease coronavirus.

The Georgia National Guard was called in to help with the distribution of food and medicine after Gov. Brian Kemp on Saturday signed Georgia's first public health emergency declaration. The state of emergency includes price control restrictions for Georgia until April 14 as shoppers comb stores to find necessities like toilet paper and cleaning supplies.

Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms issued a state of emergency for the city on Sunday night, updating the ban to gatherings of more than 50 people.

Wednesday morning, Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital said it received 14 test results, including 13 positives. Two of those patients, being cared for at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital, have died, bringing the state's total deaths to three.

The state's first fatality was a 67-year-old man who was hospitalized at WellStar Kennestone after he tested positive for COVID-19 on March 7, authorities said. The number of confirmed and presumed positive cases of COVID-19 rose from 146 on Tuesday to 197 cases in 28 counties on Wednesday.

Despite these measures, the number of people contracting coronavirus is expected to rise in our area, and metro Atlanta is projected to run out of hospital beds for patients if the number of infected people rises by even a few hundred.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

The Georgia Hospital Association said "all hospitals participate in emergency preparedness training year-round and are prepared to handle an influx of patients, should that occur."

Additionally, the association said of its hospitals:

• All hospitals follow the Centers for Disease Control’s recommended infection prevention and control practices, including minimizing the chance for exposures, placing any patient with known or suspected COVID-19 in separate location, providing personal protective equipment to health care personnel (gloves, gowns, masks), and educating staff, patients and the community on proper hand hygiene.
• Local health officials, including the Georgia Department of Public Health as well as local public health departments, state that the risk of contracting COVID-19 is still very low.
• According to Cobb and Douglas Public Health, 80 percent of people who get the coronavirus have mild symptoms and do not require hospitalization.
• All hospitals are educating the public that the best way to prevent infection is by following the same preventive measures used during the normal cold and flu season: Wash hands regularly, cover coughs and sneezes, and stay home if you are sick to prevent the spread of infection.
• Hospitals communicate and coordinate directly with each other regularly and, in times of large-scale disasters, they also work together under the Mutual Aid Compact. All Georgia hospitals, including one Florida hospital, three Tennessee hospitals, and two Alabama hospitals have signed the compact, which states that hospitals will use best efforts to make necessary resources available to each other in the event of a disaster.

If you recently traveled to areas where there are ongoing outbreaks of coronavirus and develop fever with cough and shortness of breath within 14 days of travel or if you have had contact with someone who is suspected to have COVID-19:

• Call your private physician or local/district public health.
• Click here to find the appropriate contact information for your area.

Patch has requested comment from Emory Hospital, Northside Hospital, Wellstar Hospital and the Georgia Hospital Association, and will update this story with their responses.

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, Atlanta, GA had 12,800 total hospital beds, of which about 74% were occupied, potentially leaving only 3,340 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 1,620 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Atlanta, GA region has a population of about 6.7 million residents; 12% are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Atlanta, GA would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8% of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40% of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Atlanta, GA would receive an estimated 412,000 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 13,700 beds over 12 months, which is 4.1 times the available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Atlanta, GA region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 440 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 6.7 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.