COVID-19 Subvariant BA.2 Spreads In GA: 5 Things To Know

GEORGIA — The newest COVID-19 subvariant is making its way into Georgia and other states, arriving after the state and local governments lifted the last remaining pandemic restrictions. Experts say the new strain of virus should not cause a surge because most states have a high level of immunity.

The subvariant designated BA.2 is the latest variety of the omicron variant, which became the dominant version of COVID-19 during Georgia's most recent surge. BA.2's origins are still unclear, but it has quickly asserted dominance in many countries, including India, Denmark and South Africa.

The strain is also responsible for a recent surge of cases in Europe, as well as spikes in some East Coast cities in the U.S.

The Washington Post reported the BA.2 subvariant is the strain behind about 70 percent of new infections in many parts of the United States, according to an estimate from the genomics company Helix.

Dr. Andrew Pekosz with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health said people who contracted the original omicron strain or are vaccinated and boosted should be protected against the new coronavirus variant.

"It's pretty much the same as BA.1, which is why I'm optimistic we're not going to see a huge surge in cases like we saw with BA.1," Pekosz said. "There's just too much immunity now for this virus to be able to do the same amount of damage that BA.1 did."

Georgia on March 14 recorded the fewest confirmed COVID cases since the delta variant began its surge in July 2021, state officials report. According to the Georgia Department of Public Health, there were 182 confirmed cases of COVID-19 that day; the last time numbers were that low was July 4, 2021.

On Friday, the state confirmed 667 new COVID cases, 44 deaths and 124 hospitalizations, according to the Georgia Public Health dashboard.

Georgia has seen a 38 percent decline in average cases over the past 14 days, The New York Times COVID tracker showed Friday. The state has a daily average of 577 cases, and five cases per 100,000 residents.

Here's what you need to know about the subvariant's presence in Georgia.

1. How Contagious Is BA.2?

The newly identified subvariant is considered to be more transmissible, but it's not expected to cause more severe illness than the delta variant, according to a preliminary study from Statens Serum Institute in Denmark.

The BA.2 strain of the omicron variant now makes up nearly 25 percent of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Georgia and other states in the South, including Florida and South Carolina, the federal agency reports 21 percent of the circulating viruses are BA.2 while the rest is the original omicron.

“Every time the cases come down, I feel relief. It feels great, and to be able to do things you were not comfortable doing before,” Dr. Jesse Couk, an infectious disease doctor at Piedmont Atlanta Hospital told AJC.com. “But we have to look ahead, and this is why we are so focused on Europe. We see this wave in the distance and we don’t know what will happen here.”

Keri Althoff, a researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, cautioned that CDC case counts underestimate the true numbers because some people are no longer getting tested and others are testing at home and not reporting the results. Also, she said, not every specimen is genetically sequenced to determine the variant.

It's clear, she said, "BA.2 is coming onto the scene."

2. Could The Subvariant Trigger Another Surge?

Over the weekend, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, President Joe Biden's chief medical advisor, warned the virus is likely to lead to an increase in cases nationwide but not necessarily another surge.

Infection with BA.1 should protect many residents against BA.2, but vaccination plus that natural infection is even more protective, Gigi Gronvall, an immunologist and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told the Baltimore Sun.

BA.2 cases are rising steadily, making up 23 percent of all cases in the U.S. as of early March. But scientists were still debating whether BA.2 will cause another surge in the U.S.

Dr. Kimberly Shriner, an infectious disease specialist at Huntington Hospital, told Patch last week that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could contribute to worldwide spread.

"There's this BA.2 variant of omicron that's circulating in Denmark, and what worries me a lot in that situation is with all of this movement of people out of Ukraine into Eastern Europe," she said. "Understandably, you don't have time to put a mask on when you're going to have a bomb dropped on your head.

"With the movement of all these people crammed together, you can have another surge," she said.

3. How Is It Different From The Original Omicron Variant?

The difference between the original omicron variant, BA.1, and the subvariant, BA.2, is "extremely small," according to researchers at UCLA.

The biggest difference is that the new subvariant is likely to be more contagious.

"I think the main problem with BA.2 is even more transmission," Troels Lillebaek, a molecular epidemiologist at the State Serum Institute in Copenhagen, Denmark, told Nature.com. "You risk even more people testing positive within a short time, putting strain on the hospital system."

4. How Effective Are Vaccines Against BA.2?

Both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were shown to be 70 to 80 percent effective at preventing hospitalization or death. That effectiveness increased to more than 90 percent after a booster shot, according to early studies.

A recent preliminary study that has not yet been peer reviewed of more than 1 million individuals in Qatar also suggested that two doses of either Pfizer or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines protected against symptomatic infection from BA.1 and BA.2 for several months before waning in effectiveness to around 10 percent. But a booster shot elevated protection again close to original levels.

5. How Worried Do Georgians Need To Be About BA.2?

Counties may see an uptick of BA.2 infections in the next few months, but people who were fully vaccinated or had a previous omicron infection will have protective immunity that could strengthen defense against severe disease.

Public health experts said Georgians are vulnerable because of the relatively low rates of vaccination and boosters.

“Smart money says we will see a reversal of the trend we are seeing with the declining of cases,” Dr. Felipe Lobelo, an epidemiologist at Kaiser Permanente of Georgia, told the AJC. “But how big of an uptick and how much impact this will have on severe disease and hospitalizations is very difficult to predict.”

The biggest concern among health officials was that the U.S. lagged behind other countries when it comes to vaccination rates, despite having one of the world's most robust arsenals of shots.

The U.S. is even further behind in administering booster shots. The nation lagged behind Belgium, the United Kingdom, France, Canada, Germany, Sweden, Australia and more, The New York Times reported.

"I think we are just much better equipped to deal with whatever is thrown at us now," Shriner said of the evolving COVID-19 pandemic.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.