National Weather Service Winter 2019 GA Forecast: Mild, Wet

ATLANTA, GA — There's been a flurry of early winter weather forecasts, and the homespun predictions have disagreed on just what kind of winter 2018-19 season is in store for the Atlanta region. The meteorologists at the National Weather Service have what is likely good news for most folks, although it contradicts an earlier forecast issued by the Farmer's Almanac for the Peach State. So which one to believe?

The NWS outlook, released this week, says that from December to February we can expect above-average temperatures because of a likely El Nino system. While we're also expected to have a mild winter, the greater levels of precipitation should lend itself to more rain than average in Georgia, and the region typically depends on the strength of El Nino for winter precipitation.

Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter, the experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminiatration says. Best of all: Forecasters say that no part of the country will be colder than average. While predictions this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, but if you want an idea of what is coming this winter, NOAA says plan to be soggy.

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center. "Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North."

El Nino is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," explain the climate scientists. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

Most of the country is looking warmer than normal this winter and the NWS stresses that "No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures."

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Several publications, including the Farmers' Almanac, will make long-range snowfall predictions but the National Weather Service says that is basically impossible to do.

"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," the National Weather Service states.

See related: Cold Wintry Mix Or Warm: Almanacs Disagree On GA Winter Forecast

The National Weather Service's winter prediction comes six weeks after the Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmers' Almanac made their winter projections.

The Old Farmer's Almanac expects a warm, dry winter with less precipitation than normal in Georgia and nearby states.

But the Farmer's Almanac has a bleaker prediction that says winter 2019 will be "colder-than-normal… from the Continental Divide east through the Appalachians." The Southeast zone, which encompasses Georgia, should expect a chilly, wintry mix with above-normal precipitation in December 2018, and for the region in January and February 2019.

The Weather Channel in its long-range forecast for November, December and January predicts near- or slightly below-average temperatures for the Southeast, accompanied by wetter-than-average weather across the southern tier of the U.S., and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

We'll know by April 1 who was right. There are only 133 days until spring 2019!

With reporting by Dan Taylor, Adam Nichols and Brian McCready/Patch
Photo by Shutterstock