Tropical Atlantic Weather

The surface low in the Atlantic has now become Tropical Depression 5, if and when it becomes a tropical storm, it will be Ernesto. I have several links you can use to track the status of this depression:

• Tropical Discussion
• Surface Analysis and Hurricane Model Map
• Wave, Wind, and Surface Forecast
• More under the Tropical Menu at DaculaWeather.com

Here's the latest from the NHC

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.

MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.  OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16.  GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

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