Hello from rainy Florida! I've been down here in the rain that everyone in the metro area is about to get over the next two days. Here's the latest update from the Atlanta NWS office. Oh... when they issue these, they aren't yelling, they issue everything in upper case :-)
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PEACHTREE CITY GA
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND A BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. SOUTHERN FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES IS FUNNELING A TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO MUCH OF GEORGIA. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER. MODELS ARE PROGGING THOSE VALUES TO APPROACH TWO AND A QUARTER BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOW STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF S/SE GA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE HEAVIER AXIS OF PRECIP TO SET UP ALONG AND EAST OF AN ATHENS TO MACON LINE. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL SETS UP FOR OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW. I DO THINK THE GFS IS HAVING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES. THE NAM HAS AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS NW GA OVERNIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE AND RAISED POPS ACROSS THE WEST...BUT HAVE STILL KEPT THEM HIGH END CHANCE. AS THE TROUGH/RIDGE RETROGRADE...SO WILL THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GA AND THE METRO AREAS TOMORROW. HAVE TRIED TO ORIENT POPS ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...WITH COPIOUS CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP...HAVE TONED DOWN THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING A BIT. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO REDUCE TSRA COVERAGE FURTHER. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY/ALMOST TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER TODAY.
MODELS STILL IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR THE 4TH OF JULY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP...WX...AND QPF BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND WPC GUIDANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO PEAK DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS SEEMS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH 48-HR RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TOPPING OUT AT OVER 6 INCHES IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. AT THIS POINT...AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM...HAVE CONSIDERED IT AN OUTLIER. ECMWF AND SREF MATCH THE OVERALL SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIP FAIRLY WELL...WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2.5-3.5 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP WELL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THURSDAY. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF DEFINITE SHOWERS WITH LIKELY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. HAVE MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POP/QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND HAVE LEFT THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS BEYOND THE WEEKEND UNTOUCHED.
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