While some areas of the country have been shivering with brutally cold temperatures and snow and ice, here in the southeast, it's just been rainy and cool. Where's the winter weather you ask? It appears that it's lurking right around the corner, let's see what weather the New Year may bring us!
A lot of the discussion in my past posts has revolved around the teleconnection indices, and what state they need to be in to bring us some winter weather here in the southeast. Several important indices have not been very favorable lately, most notably the AO and NAO, both of which have been running fairly high positive values. Again, positive values of the AO and NAO indicate a lack of blocking in the atmosphere. In the winter time, we need these blocking mechanisms to get the cold air to push into the southeast. Let me give you an example of how blocking changes the temperatures in the southeast. We had a fairly warm winter last winter, but in late February, both the AO and NAO went into a negative state in response to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW) that occurred in late January. Here are the temperature anomalies for March due to the blocking that took place. You can see that our March temperatures went well below normal in response to the negative
It appears that we're currently in the midst of a pattern change that is going to lead to a period of stormy and cold in the east. We are seeing all kinds of encouraging signs with both teleconnections and long range models, that there will be a period of time after the 1st of the year that may bring chances for winter precip in the southeast.
The models are projecting a -AO, -NAO, -PNA, and a -WPO, ALL good signs for us in the southeast. There is already a good snow pack across the northern tier of states, and as of yesterday, 47% of the country had snow on the ground. This snow cover will be important as more cold air enters the country, as it keeps the temperatures from moderating as much as they would if there was no snow cover at all, more of the cold reaches further south.
It's looking like there will be some exciting weather times ahead as we enter the new year, more to come as the time gets a little closer.
On a side note, I'm beginning to use my Facebook page more and more. While I hate to say it, it's much quicker and easier to make updates there, as well as display images, maps, and all of the things that are fun to look at!
Please take a moment over the holidays and go "Like" https://www.facebook.com/NorthGeorgiaWeather
I would greatly appreciate it!
Finally, I like to take a moment to thank everyone for taking a few minutes out of your busy day to read my blog. I sometimes get email from people asking questions or just telling me how much they appreciate the blog. To those of you, thank you, it helps to make all the time and effort worthwhile.
So... as we close out 2013, I'd like to wish everyone out there a joyful and happy Christmas, as well as a Happy New Year! Enjoy your family and friends, and keep those that may not be as fortunate as you are this year.
Merry Christmas to All!!!
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