Excitement is building for next weekend as an approaching system brings a chance for snow somewhere in the southeast. But even more exciting is a pattern change following right on it's heels.
We entering a very chaotic and unsettled weather pattern starting this week and continuing into next week. We dry out slightly for Monday and most of Tuesday but rain returns on Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms. After this system exits the GFS is advertising much colder air for Friday than what we've grown accustomed to lately, and I believe this will be the start to more winter like weather over the next several weeks.
Several factors are now pointing to the pattern change we've been advertising for a few weeks. First, the GFS is beginning to show both east and west blocking in our future. With this blocking, the cold arctic air is squeezed between the blocking high pressure areas and the cold air can only go one direction and that's south. Second, the Arctic Oscillation is forecast to go negative... it's been extremely positive for several months and history says that it can't last any longer. We need a -AO to bring colder air south and it looks like we just might get that. Part of the negative AO forecast is probably based on the third piece of the puzzle, the stratospheric warming event that is well underway. The stratospheric warming will cause the polar vortex to shift and/or split and force cold air toward the equator.
And of course, there are an infinite number of variations of these factors and many others that will have an impact on what happens, but we're entering a period where our chances for winter weather will increase dramatically.
But the key to making it all work is the blocking and we'll be watching this unfold over the next week or two.
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