Winter Weather Stats for Atlanta

Since we've had no snow this winter... here are some wnter weather facts for the Atlanta area that were compliled by Larry (with no last name) from Savannah. Larry helps keep us "informed" with his extensive database of climate data for Georgia.

"Here are some stats for KATL (Atlanta):

• KATL has a winter with no measurable S(now)/I(ce)P about once avery five years on average (17 of 82 winters going back to 1929-1930).
• Since 1975-76 (last 36 winters), there have been only four without measurable S/IP (only one every nine years): 1980-81, 1999-00, 2002-03, and 2005-06
• Since 1929-1930, there have been 34 winters with no measurable S/IP prior to February 1. A very respectable 17 of the 34 (half of them) went on to have measurable S/IP in either February or March.
• So, assuming no measurable S/IP prior to February 1st of this year, this statistic alone suggests roughly a 50-50 chance for measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+. However, I want to see how it looks if I analyze further.
• Of those 34 winters with no measurable S/IP, 3 were cold from December 1 -January 31, 19 were near normal, and 12 were warm (similar to what we're experiencing now). Regarding just the 12 with a warm 12/1-1/31 and no measurable S/IP prior to February 1, 7 of these 12 warm ones ended up having measurable S/IP 2/1+:

1932: 0.3" 3/9 and 0.2" on 3/12....ENSO = neutral
1947: 0.5" 2/28.............................ENSO = neutral
1952: 3.9" 2/26.............................ENSO = weak El Nino
1989: 0.7" 2/23.............................ENSO = strong La Nina
1995: 0.4" 2/6-7...........................ENSO = mod. El Nino
1999: 0.4" 2/24.............................ENSO = mod. La Nina
2007: 0.1" 2/1...............................ENSO = mod. El Nino

• Regarding the five warm 12/1-1/31's that ended up with no measurable S/IP the entire winter, their ENSO states were as follows:

1936-37: neutral
1948-49: neutral
1949-50: strong La Nina
1955-56: weak La Nina
1973-74: strong La Nina

• We're in a weak La Nina
• Taking into acount all of these stats, I still think there's roughly a 50-50 shot at measurable S/IP at KATL 2/1+ this winter
• IF it does occur this winter, the odds favor (based on these stats as well as the expectation of a warm late Jan. into at least very early Feb.) one measurable event of less than 1" in mid to late February or possibly early March.

So, keep hope alive! "

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Thank you Larry!

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