Dacula, Grayson Show Average Concentration Of COVID-19 Positives

GWINNETT COUNTY, GA — Dacula and Grayson have relatively average concentrations of positive tests for COVID-19 by Gwinnett County standards — but it could be worse.

Statistics released Tuesday by the Gwinnett, Newton and Rockdale Health Department show that the zip codes associated with those towns — 30019 and 30017 — have 2.5 to 3.2 positives out of 1,000 tests.

Loganville’s zip code, 30052, does somewhat better with 1.0 to 2.2 positives out of 1,000 tests.

The worst concentrations in Gwinnett are in zip codes that include Lilburn, Lawrenceville, Buford and Braselton, with 3.5 to 4.5 positives per 1,000. The least affected zip codes are those associated with Duluth and parts of John Creek.

Overall, Gwinnett County shows about 2.9 cases per 1,000 according to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

For context, Dougherty County, site of Georgia’s earliest hotspot, has recorded about 19 positives per 1,000 tests. Randolph County, also in southwest Georgia, has the highest concentration of positive tests with about 25 per 1,000. Although Gwinnett County has recorded among the highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state, it ranks only 71st among 159 counties for cases per thousand.

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What do these figures mean? Right now, it’s hard to say, according to Dr. Audrey Arona, who directs the Gwinnett, Newton and Rockdale Health Department.

The reason is how the tested population has changed over time. In March, tests were administered only to high-risk populations and essential workers. In mid-April, anyone with symptoms could get a test. Eventually, Gov. Brian Kemp opened testing to anyone who wanted one.

“Our data is very highly skewed because we were not testing a broad part of the population for a long time,” Arona said to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “Now that we’ve opened up to the whole community, we’re testing more asymptomatic people. When you change the population in which you’re testing, it’s very hard to correlate percentages.”

Complicating matters further is how different types of tests are counted. The Columbus Ledger-Enquirer reported Wednesday that Georgia had been counting tests for coronavirus antibodies — which only confirm whether a person had previously been infected — along with tests for the virus itself. A spokesman for the state couldn’t confirm how many antibody tests had been included with the total.

“You’re putting apples and oranges together and calling them oranges,” Dr. Harry Heiman, a professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health, said to the Ledger-Enquirer. “All that does is over-inflate the testing number.”

As Georgia ramped up its testing, the state health department had reported a steadily shrinking number of positives, down to 10 percent from 16 percent in just a few weeks. Now that Georgia has confirmed it compiled data on two different types of tests, those glowing results are being viewed with increasing skepticism.

The problem is that collecting meaningful statistics is a marathon, and so far this is only the first leg.

“As we learn about this virus and more statistics are given to us, over time, we’ll be able to make assessments in real time and less assumptions,” Arona told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

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