Richard Irvin, Darren Bailey Frontrunners In GOP Primary, Poll Shows

AURORA, IL — Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin and State Sen. Darren Bailey have emerged as front-runners in the Republican primary race for Illinois governor, an Emerson College poll shows.

Emerson College Polling teamed with WGN and The Hill to release a poll asking about 1,000 somewhat and very likely voters who they plan to vote for in the Republican primary on June 28. While 37 percent of respondents were undecided, 24 percent said they'd vote for Irvin, and 20 percent said Bailey. Gary Rubine, Paul Schimpf, Jesse Sullivan and Max Solomon each got less than 10 percent of the vote.

Conducted between May 6 and May 8, the survey's data set, with a margin of error of about 3 percent, give or take, was weighted by gender, age, education, race and region, according to the report.

"The Republican gubernatorial primary has a clear education divide: Irvin leads Bailey among those with a college or postgraduate degree 30% to 17%, while Bailey leads Irvin among those without a college degree 23% to 18%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement.

Within urban and city areas, Irvin, the top elected official in Illinois's second-largest city, holds a significant lead — 32 to 10 percent — over Bailey, according to the report. But in rural areas, the candidates flip, with Bailey getting 30 percent to Irvin's 16 percent. In the suburbs, about 25 percent support Irvin and 20 percent support Bailey.

According to Emerson College Polling, about 57 percent of poll-takers said they were more likely to support a candidate backed by former President Donald Trump.

"Both Bailey and Irvin would benefit from a Trump endorsement; however, Irvin also leads with voters who are less likely to support a Trump-endorsed candidate with 26%," Kimball said. "He also leads with voters who say his endorsement would make no difference, about 2:1, 33% to 17%."

For voters in the May 6-8 poll, economy was the top issue for 54 percent of poll-takers. Crime was next with 15 percent, followed by immigration with 7 percent. Within Chicago, crime was a hotter issue, with 39 percent of voters finding it the most important issue.

The poll also surveyed voters' positions on abortion. About 40 percent believed it should only be legal in cases of rape, incest and when a woman's life is endangered, while 18 percent said it should be illegal in all cases. Others had different opinions, with 15 percent saying it should be legal up to 20 weeks, 15 percent saying it should be legal in all cases, and 13 percent saying it should be legal up to six weeks of pregnancy, according to the report.