Community Corner
The 2022 Fall Leaf Map
What started as a fun side-project quickly became the most respected nationwide fall leaf map and one of the best fall resources.
About SmokyMountains.com
SmokyMountains.com is the top travel brand promoting the Smoky Mountain region. The
company focuses on delivering incredible vacation experiences for the millions of annual
travelers to the area and the fall leaf map is one of the ways they positively impact vacations to
the region. In addition, they provide visitors with an easy way to book a vacation rental or cabin
rental in the areas surrounding the National Park.
Accuracy:
SmokyMountains.com utilizes a refined data model that depends on a combination of factors,
including historical temperature and precipitation, forecast temperature and precipitation, the
type of tree known to be prominent in that geographic region, the historical trends in that area,
and user data. In addition to the past factors, we are introducing the capability for end-users to
provide real-time leaf reports that will impact both updates and future models. However, similar
to any meteorological forecast that is dependent on weather variables, the leaf predictions are
not 100% accurate. That being said, after publishing their predictive fall foliage map for nearly a
decade, they are confident in our data sources, process, and algorithm.
Find out what's happening in Downers Grovefor free with the latest updates from Patch.
How To Use: (link to full map)
The fall leaf map is intuitive and easy to use. When you visit the page, you will see a slider at
the bottom. The slider will be set to the current week. You can slide the slider to the right to see
the predicted progression of fall. The green indicates the trees in that area of the country have
not begun to change colors. The brown color means that the leaves are past their peak. The
remaining colors show a colorful depiction of the progression of fall.
History:
In 2013, potential visitors to the Smoky Mountain region began asking questions about when
the leaves would be most brilliant. From these questions, they built the first version of the fall leaf
map and have consistently improved it each year. What started as a fun side-project quickly
became the most respected nationwide fall leaf map and one of the best fall resources in the
country. Now, tens of millions of people use our map each year to plan vacations, weddings,
and photography trips. However, the most common use is individuals using the leaf map to
check when leaves will peak near their home.
Find out what's happening in Downers Grovefor free with the latest updates from Patch.
New This Year:
For the first time ever, they are encouraging end-users to fill out a simple form to report the fall
foliage they are experiencing in their region. With tens of millions of annual users, they expect
these reports to educate the mode further and impact the mid-year update, which is scheduled
for late September. In addition, these reports will help identify both strengths and
weaknesses in the current model and refine it over time.
Annual Update/Timing of Update:
"Similar to a weekend weather forecast, the timing of our map update is important. The
backbone of the map is meteorology - temperature, moisture, sunlight and precipitation. While
meteorology is most accurate immediately before an event, a forecast is more useful to travelers
and end users when made in advance. With our unique blend of historical and forecast data, we
are able to make a highly accurate prediction by the end of August. The drastic year-to-year
changes dictate that we create a new map from scratch with new data each year. Our end goal
is to produce a map that's useful and fun."
About David Angotti
David Angotti is a statistical expert and the founder of SmokyMountains.com. His love for
weather, travel, technology, and the autumn season intersect perfectly with this annual project!
As an Airline Transport Pilot, Angotti was required to fully understand weather patterns and was
highly trained in using meteorological tools. These weather sources, predictive tools, and the
brand’s existing data from previous years are the backbone of the 2022 fall leaf map.
Other Tools
We love fall and want it to be fun and exciting for everyone! So, in addition to the predictive
map, we also include a scientific overview of why leaves change colors that has been used in
many classrooms across the country. In addition, to make fall more real for children, we have
coloring sheets and colorful illustrations. In addition, they have created a comprehensive list of the very best fall destinations for leaf peeping in all 50 states.
