Coronavirus: Joliet Hospitals Lack Beds To Handle Expected Cases

JOLIET, IL — Joliet-area hospitals would be overwhelmed with new coronavirus patients under most likely scenarios for infection rates, according to a ProPublica report released Tuesday and based on data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The report underscores the seriousness of the need to "flatten the curve" through social distancing, which health officials hope will slow the spread of the disease and keep hospital caseloads manageable. But even in what experts consider a moderate rate of infection, ProPublica said, Joliet-area hospitals would need nearly six times as many intensive-care-unit beds as it currently has to meet the demand for care.

Illinois is currently reporting 160 confirmed cases of coronavirus, including cases in Will County, and one death statewide. On Wednesday, Will County's Health Department notified Joliet Patch there are now seven confirmed cases of coronavirus in Will County. On Monday, the health department announced that a man in his 50s became Will County's first confirmed case.

Since then, the man's wife, who is in her 50s as well, also has the coronavirus, the agency told Patch Wednesday. The other five people are: a man in his 40s, a man in his 30s, a man in his 50s, a woman in her 50s and a woman in her 30s, county health officials said.

Brandy told Patch the health department is not currently disclosing the hometowns of people affected by the coronavirus. The county was not saying how many of the seven people are currently being hospitalized.

According to ProPublica, as of 2018, Joliet had 1,380 total hospital beds, of which about 52 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 660 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 150 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Joliet region has a population of about 691,000 residents; 13 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

Under a "moderate scenario" outlined by researchers, in which 40 percent of the U.S. population contracts coronavirus over the next 12 months, Joliet-area hospitals would need to treat 42,700 coronavirus patients. That influx would require 1,420 beds over 12 months, which is 2.2 times the number of typically available beds.

The study assumed a fifth of infected adults would need to be hospitalized with an average hospital stay of 12 days, based on data from China.

In the Joliet region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 53 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 5.7 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

On Wednesday morning, Joliet Patch left a detailed voicemail message seeking reaction to the ProPublica report from Tim Nelson, AMITA Health Saint Joseph Medical Center system director for communications and media relations, but Nelson has not responded back for comment.

AMITA did announce it is temporarily barring all visitors until further notice.

Other hospitals in the Joliet area include AMITA Health Adventist Bolingbrook Hospital, Edward Hospital in Naperville and Silver Cross Hospital in New Lenox, which earlier this week confirmed is treating its first coronavirus patient, a woman in her 50s.

"We are closely following the recommended guidelines outlined by these officials, and are implementing all protocols, including an exposure investigation, to identify whose who might have had contact with this patient and treat them accordingly to minimize further transmission of the virus," Silver Cross told Patch in a statement. "Along with the care of this patient, our No. 1 priority at Silver Cross Hospital remains patient and staff safety."

Edward Hospital is not providing the exact numbers of patients or how many have been tested, but has started using an outdoor triage tent to prepare for a possible influx of coronavirus patients "in anticipation of higher volumes," an Edward emergency medicine physician told the Chicago Tribune. The tent is being used to screen patients with potential virus symptoms and, if necessary, test them for coronavirus.

The ProPublica report released Tuesday gives a clearer picture of just how overwhelmed hospitals would be. It shows that, in large swaths of the country, social distancing will not be enough to end the pandemic if hospitals are not able to increase capacity to treat people who get infected.

Hospitals across the country have already been preparing for an unprecedented influx of patients. Most began canceling elective surgeries earlier this month, and many have been trying to discharge patients sooner.

"We are asking our surgeons to consider rescheduling elective surgeries," Nelson said recently. "Because every patient is unique, we rely on our physicians to use their medical judgment to determine the need for surgery."

But even with those efforts, 40 percent of the American population will be living in areas that could run short of hospital beds. Hospital executives project that they will need to increase capacity by 20 to 70 percent, depending on size and location.

"If we don't make substantial changes, both in spreading the disease over time and expanding capacity, we're going to run out of hospital beds," said Dr. Ashish Jha, the director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. "And in that instance, we will not be able to take care of critically ill people, and people will die."

Read the full ProPublica report.