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The Most OVERLOOKED Stat in Baseball

It seems crazy to me that this stat used primarily for pitchers is rarely used with hitters, when it would be easy for teams to be smart.

If only the Tigers were smarter with Javy
If only the Tigers were smarter with Javy (NY Post)

First of all, what I am about to present seems too obvious to be ignored by the whole MLB, when this can dictate signing hitters and future hitter performance by a cursory check with a simple formula. This has been used, but most people ignore it.
So, if you know about BABIP, you know it measures pretty much the luck factor of hitters vs certain pitchers. However, what if we measure specific hitters fhBABIP (for hitters), and see how lucky their production has been/is?
At first glance, this is easy, however this is easier said than done. After using the BABIP formula however, it becomes much easier to find the stat by just plugging in the hitters stats. Here it is:
fhBABIP=(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF)
Just a reminder is that I am only using the formula that is already used, however rarely used for evaluating hitters. Using this should be very helpful.
Can I predict a bad season? Let’s pretend that I am the Cubs GM during the 2021 offseason. Should I have kept Javy Baez at the trade deadline? After all, with the Mets he had a .299 batting average, riiight? And overall, a .265 batting average is alright with 31 home runs, riight? And anyways, he’s on the way up considering the end of the season was a lot better? Well, I think that the decision of trading him was right, because look at his fhBABIP which was .352, and league average hovers around .300. Therefore, he was getting lucky, and that raises another question for me. Was his third of a season with the Mets super lucky? Let’s calculate only Mets fhBABIP, shall we.
Well, I was right, but not to the extreme. You see, in the part of his 2021 season with the Mets, he had a .390 fhBABIP which means that His success was definitely luck linked. So, what happened in 2022? I didn’t sign him to play for the Cubs, that Mets run was a fluke. Lets check his 2022 stats. Was I right?
Most definitely yes. His fhBABIP in 2022? .292!!! The luck stopped, and look at his 2021 with Mets to 2022 with Tigers comparison: AVG .299 to .238, OBP .371 to .278, SLG .515 to .393, OPS .886 to .671, and from his whole 2021 season vs whole 2022, a WAR difference of 4.6 to 2.6, so he gave the Tigers 2 less wins of production after signing a 6 year, 140 million dollar deal with NO WAY TO REMOVE HIM UNTIL THE CONTRACT IS OVER?!?! If a 9th grader can use a simple stat such as fhBABIP, then why can’t a MLB GM and everyone working with the Tigers who helped sign Baez, have seen his high level of production at the end of 2021 just a BIG FLUKE? I could do this with tons of players, but for now, this is a good way to prove the efficiency of a short calculation to figure out what will happen with a player’s future? And if you are relying on luck, let’s put a college roster on a MLB team and hope for the best, because why not? Wasting 140 million on a washed up shortstop because luck went more his way for a couple months? I don’t understand this.
*1 note, there is no excuse for the Tigers, because .290 is almost exactly .300, which is league average. This was not bad luck, this was WHAT YOU SHOULD EXPECT! Spend your 140 million wiser, seriously.

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