Cops and Robbers in Orland, Tinley and Cook

In light of the Dec 12 forum on crime rates and trends in the region (https://bit.ly/OP_Crime ), I’ve spent the last several weeks putting together white papers on comprehensive statistical analyses of crime trends in Tinley Park https://adobe.ly/3NaqJs5 and Orland Park https://adobe.ly/47WSFHN and the portion of Cook County outside of Chicago https://adobe.ly/47OCiNO

I think you will find it worthwhile reading if you plan to attend the Dec 12 forum, or if you are concerned about the southwest suburbs' crime conundrum.

Here are the reports’ key findings:

***Except for car thefts and larceny thefts, crime rates in Orland Park did not change to a statistically significant degree in the 2006-2022 or 2017-2022 periods.

*** Except for car thefts, larceny thefts and burglary, crime rates in Tinley Park did not change to a statistically significant degree in the 2006-2022 or 2017-2022 periods.

***Car thefts have increased sharply in the last six years in both villages, and larceny thefts have decreased sharply over the same period in both, to statistically significant degrees. In Tinley Park, burglary has also decreased.

*** The percentage decrease in larceny thefts in Tinley and Orland Park mirrored a similar decrease across the state, suggesting it wasn’t local factors but wide-spread environmental forces driving the decrease.

***In Cook County, the frequency of violent crime as a whole did not change to a statistically significant degree during the 2015-2020 period, nor did any of its four components: homicide, rape, robbery and assault.

***In Cook County, the frequency of property crime involving burglary decreased and car thefts increased to statistically significant degrees, while property crime involving larceny theft and arson did not change.

***From 2006 through 2022, Orland Park’s violent crime rate has been low and unchanged over the time period, and the same is true for Tinley Park from 2010 through 2022. Over the entire period, Tinley Park’s rate has been about twice the rate in Orland Park. This differential has remained relatively constant under many mayors and police chiefs, so the cause appears to be environmental rather than any actions taken by village governments.

Once again, you can download a copy of the Orland Park report at https://adobe.ly/3uwnnsR and the Tinley Park report at https://adobe.ly/3R5c8iG and the Cook County Minus Chicago report at https://adobe.ly/3Gvm1kU ).

Any comments you care to make are most welcome! Since Patch is not currently publishing readers’ comments, you can mail yours to me at daroldbarnum@gmail.com

Darold