Understanding Crime Trends in Orland Park and Tinley Park

The second Southwest Suburban Public Safety Forum will bring together community members, experts, and local leaders on December 4 to discuss key public safety issues, with a focus on retail theft. https://patch.com/illinois/orlandpark/orland-tinley-county-leaders-collaborate-2nd-public-safety-forum

Data from the FBI’s Crime Data Explorer includes statistics on violent crime and larceny/theft. The data were reported to the FBI by Orland Park and Tinley Park, so provide valuable insights for these discussions. Since 2021, FBI crime reporting has expanded to include more types of offenses, which has impacted the totals for some crime categories, particularly violent crime. This change should be kept in mind when analyzing recent data trends.(https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend).

Trends in Larceny-Theft

The first two graphs illustrate the statistically significant downward trend in larceny-theft in both Orland Park and Tinley Park. Despite a lack of data from Orland Park for 2021 and 2022, its 2023 results continue the long-standing decline, as does the complete dataset for Tinley Park. This decrease aligns with broader regional and statewide patterns, suggesting that environmental and social factors, rather than local activities, are likely responsible the declines in larceny-theft.

Violent Crime Patterns

While larceny-theft has seen a statistically significant decrease, violent crime has remained stable in both communities. The other two graphs show no upward or downward trend in violent crime from 2011 through 2020. However, the FBI’s expanded crime categories, required from 2021 onward, resulted in a statistically significant upsurge in that year, reflecting the broader range of crimes rather than an actual increase in incidents.

Caution in Crime Data Comparisons

The FBI advises against using crime statistics to compare jurisdictions without considering the local context, as rankings often fail to capture the variables influencing crime in each area. Such comparisons can lead to overly simplistic analyses and misconceptions

Conclusion

Tinley Park and Orland Park benefit from relatively low crime rates, largely due to favorable community conditions. Although media reports of isolated incidents may create a sense of widespread crime, the likelihood of any resident being affected remains low. Forums like the Southwest Suburban Public Safety Forum provide an important platform for discussing public safety efforts that contribute to the wellbeing of our communities.

Written by Darold Barnum, PhD, with significant editing assistance by ChatGPT 4o.
If you have any concerns, I hope you will inform me. daroldbarnum@gmail.com