Rauner, Pritzker Lead Illinois Primary Election Polls

SPRINGFIELD, IL — A statewide poll released Wednesday indicates the gubernatorial primary races are tightening and provides a first look at polling in the race for attorney general. The Simon Poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University found Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner with a 20-point lead over challenger Rep. Jeanne Ives, on the Democratic side, J.B. Pritzker was in front of Sen. Daniel Biss by 10 points and Chris Kennedy by 14. Both primaries for the attorney general nomination were were within 5 points.

Pollsters included hypothetical match-ups between Rauner and two of the Democrats competing for a shot at his job, losing to either of them by 15 points.

Both Pritzker and Biss had big leads over Rauner in Chicago and its suburbs, but among downstate voters, Rauner had a three point lead over Pritzker and an eight point advantage over Biss.

"One explanation may be that in the minds of voters—who may know little about either Biss or Pritzker—the decision may come down to ‘Rauner versus not-Rauner,’" said Charlie Leonard, a visiting professor involved in the polling.

Leonard explained the numbers indicate voters are essentially saying, "If the election were held today, I’d rather be ‘not-Rauner.’"

With less than three weeks to go until the March 20 primary election, major events could still change the numbers, according to another designer of the poll, John S. Jackson.

"However, for all the money and attention these two races have garnered, the results so far fairly faithfully reflect the bedrock strength of these two parties in the state of Illinois, and this advantages the Democrats," he said, announcing the results.

In the race to succeed outgoing Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, two Republican candidates and eight Democrats are squaring off against each other.

The Simon Poll shows former Congressional candidate Erika Harold ahead of DuPage County Board Member Gary Grasso, 18 percent to 14 percent. Another 65 percent of voters were undecided in the Republican race. Their support was evenly distributed around the state, according to the poll.

Among Democrats, most hovered at five points and below, around the margin of error, with two candidates showing significant support. Sen. Kwame Raoul had the vote of 22 percent of those polled, while former Gov. Pat Quinn picked up 18 percent. Quinn had greater downstate support, but Raoul did better in the city and suburbs. The poll found 39 percent of Democrats remain undecided.

The poll of 1,001 registered voters was conducted with live calling between Feb. 19 and Feb. 25. It included 60 percent cell phone interviews and its sample was comprised of 259 Republicans and 472 Democrats. Its margin of error was 3 percentage points overall, with higher margins among regional subgroups.

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Complete Simon Poll Results:

Democratic Party Primary for Governor

Republican Party Primary for Governor

Republican Party Primary for Attorney General

Democratic Party Primary for Attorney General

The Simon Poll's Methodology:

The margin of error for the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin of error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects. Among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.

Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and with quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.

Field work was conducted from February 19 through February 25. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org

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• Poll: Biss leaps over Kennedy into 2nd place, Pritzker's lead slips