Rauner Trails Pritzker By 18 Points In 1st Illinois Governor Poll

SPRINGFIELD, IL — The first head to head poll of the race for Illinois governor finds incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner faces a steep uphill battle to win re-election. The first statewide poll conducted since J.B. Pritzker won the Democratic primary just over a month ago showed Rauner trailing by nearly 18 points.

If the election were held today Pritzker would defeat Rauner 49.4 percent to 31.2 percent, according to the first Illinois poll of the general election. Another 19.4 percent of respondents were undecided or unfamiliar with the candidates.

With more than $120 million already spent through contested primaries in both parties, the race is on track to be the most expensive gubernatorial election in U.S. history, according to the most recent quarterly filings with the Illinois State Board of Elections.

Pritzker gave himself more than $76 million and spent about $119 per vote to handily defeat five other candidates by nearly a quarter-million votes and almost 20 percentage points.

Rauner survived a conservative challenge from state Rep. Jeanne Ives by under 3 points and roughly 20,000 votes. He spent more than $102 per vote, compared to Ives, who spent about $12.50 per vote.

The governor has yet to win over a majority of Ives' voters, according to the poll. It showed only 42.2 percent of voters who picked his opponent in the primary were ready to vote for the Republican incumbent. Another 34 percent were undecided, and 23.8 percent said they would rather support the Democrat.

The poll indicates Rauner has lost support in every region of the state since winning the 2014 election. In central and southern Illinois as well as the collar counties, Rauner had more than 60 percent of the vote four years ago. Now he has less than 40 percent. In suburban Cook County, his support has declined from 45.3 percent in 2014 to 23.7 percent in the latest poll.

Also worrying for the governor's re-election campaign: only 33.4 percent of voters over the age of 60 said they supported him. When Rauner defeated former Gov. Pat Quinn exit polls in 2014, exit polls suggested he won 57 percent of the vote of those aged 65 and older.

Similarly, the poll showed Democrats have not completely unified in support of Pritzker's big-spending campaign in the month since he won the nomination.

Voters who backed Kenilworth businessman Chris Kennedy were broadly in support of Pritzker, as 83 percent said they'd be backing the nominee in November.

But those who voted for state Sen. Daniel Biss in the primary were less supportive of Pritzker, with only 54.2 percent of Biss voters saying they would support the party's nominee. Biss has yet to endorse Pritzker, although the two have reportedly had multiple phone conversations since the primary.

The poll also asked Illinoisans whether they "believe Governor Bruce Rauner deserves to be re-elected to a second term in office."

Overall, 53.1 percent of respondents, including nearly 15 percent of Republicans said 'no.' Among Ives voters, 31.3 percent said Rauner does not deserve re-election, with another 30 percent unsure. Only 20.5 percent of self-described "moderates" said the governor deserved another term.

The statewide telephone poll has been conducted every two months since 2001 by Chicago-based Victory Research, which said it does not have client in the governor's race. Live callers contacted 1208 likely voters between April 18 and 21 via land lines and cell phones. The poll had a margin of error of 2.8 percent.

In the week since the poll was constructed, outgoing Republican Sen. Sam McCann resigned from his party's caucus in the General Assembly and said he has begun collecting the estimated 25,000 signatures needed to appear on the ballot for governor as a member of the Conservative Party.

Related:

• Sen. Sam McCann Declares Conservative Party Run For Governor
• Ives Concedes, Calls Rauner 'Despicable' In Concession
• Rauner Slams Madigan, Says Tactics Are A 'Mafia Racket'
• Illinois Governor Primary: It's Pritzker And Rauner At Last

Complete breakdown of the Victory Research Illinois Poll conducted April 18-21: