Whether It's Ron Paul or the '47 Percent,' Iowa's Influential Party Leaders See Debate Stakes Far Greater for Romney

The GOP can blame Ron Paul Repubicans, Mitt Romney's 47-percent problem or anything else, but one conclusion that's clear out of the little state that could swing the 2012 presidential election is that influential Democrats remain confident that Barack Obama will win the Nov. 6 election.

The findings come as a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, released Saturday night, showed Obama up by 4 points in the state. Iowa is a swing state in the election, a major factor in several scenarios that could determine which candidate acquires the 270 electoral votes to win.

Heading into Wednesday's debate, Patch's Red Iowa survey shows that influential Democrats in the state place far less importance on Wednesday's presidential debate than influential Iowa Republicans.

Only 4 percent of the 21 Democrats taking part in the survey strongly agreed that Obama's chances of winning Iowa depended on a good debate performance Wednesday in Denver and nearly a quarter of them disagreed that the debate would be important.

In contrast, 21 percent of influential Republicans in the state felt Romney's chances of winning the state depended on him doing well Wednesday and only 13 percent strongly disagreed.

"Analysts overrate the importance of debates in general," one surveyed Democrat said. "Unless one candidate performs extremely badly, it is unlikely to affect the dynamic of the race."

Still, the debate will be closely watched in this swing state where the importance of its six electoral votes has been underscored by a steady stream of visits by the candidate and their surrogates.

"I'm nervous about it because the president tends to give long, professorial answer to questions and because Romney had so much practice in the 19 Republican debates," another Democrat said.

The 21 Democrats responding to the Blue Iowa survey are a mix of current and former office holders, party leaders, candidates and activists. The survey was inspired by academic research that showed endorsements by party "actors" at all levels are a critical leading indicator of primary presidential elections.

Blue Iowa looks at the mood of influential Democrats as campaigning for the general election heats up. 

One bit of trouble Romney has hit in Iowa: As an earlier survey of influential Republicans in the state indicated, Ron Paul Republicans in Iowa remain leery of Romeny.

While a Rasmussen poll puts Romney ahead by 3 points, a combined average of several polls tracked by The Huffington Post gives the president a 4.6 percent lead. That includes anNBC/WSJ/Marist poll, which shows Obama ahead by 8 points, and an ARG Poll, that puts the president’s lead at 7 percent.

Like nationally, Obama's climb in the polls has widened since Romney was captured on video talking to wealthy Republicans and stating that those Americans who don't pay income tax refuse to take responsibility for their lives.

The Register's poll, released Saturday night, was not included in that combined average. In addition to finding the president leading Romney by 4 percent, it found almost all likely voters in Iowa have made their choices. Just 2 percent remain undecided, the poll shows.

But 10 percent say they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate, the poll found, giving Romne some reason for hope.

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If you'd like to take part in either survey, contact Iowa Regional Editor Todd Richissin at todd.richissin@patch.com.

Those who agree to take part in the survey are noted below, but individual answers are kept confidential.

Jan Bauer, Abishek Vemuri, Beth Wessel Krochell, Wayne Clinton, Tom Beell, Jim Gaunt, Ethan Fredricke, Don Zuck, Bob Kressig, Jeff Danielson, Pat Sass, Don Page, Pam Gross, Tavis Hall, Sally Browne, Roger White, Terry Dahms, Sarah Swisher, Katherine Valde, Mike Carbrerry, Caroline Dieterle, Scott Syroka, Virginia Soelberg, Marcia Nichols, Judy Anderson, Tom Leffler, Bill Unger, Pat Walters, Mari Hall, George Lake, Seth Moomey, Amber Mussman, Cody Crawford, Jan McCool, Mary Polson, Dan Cataldi, Kris Winters, Mike Newell, Rick Smith, Carl Johnson, Gail Kotoval, David Leonard, Julie Zeisman, Eric Brenneman, Sue Ellen Kennedy, Joe Shanahan, Laurie Belin, Saundra Ragona, Kathi Phillips, Karen Moriarity.