2016 Iowa Caucuses: Why Trump Could Lose

BY BETH DALBEY | DEB BELT
DES MOINES, IA – The final Iowa Poll numbers heading into Monday’s Iowa Caucuses give Donald Trump the lead among the state’s likely Republican voters, but the bombastic billionaire is in no way assured victory.

The Des Moines Register Bloomberg/Politics Iowa Poll, which has a 4 percent margin error, showed Trump leading Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 28 percent to 23 percent, but several factors could change the outcome: Turnout among evangelical Christians, the fickle nature of Iowa voters, the difficulty in caucusing and, yes, even the weather.

Nearly half of likely Republican caucus-goers who were questioned in the Iowa Poll released Saturday identify themselves part of an influential, highly organized group — evangelical or born-again Christians.

The group is consistently under-represented in polling.

Four years ago, 57 percent of Republican caucus-goers identified themselves as part of that bloc. Among those questioned in the Iowa poll, only 47 percent identified themselves as evangelicals.

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When poll director Ann Selzer adjusted Saturday’s results to show a hypothetical turnout in that range, Trump still wins, but only by a hair. Under that scenario, Trump gets 26 percent and Cruz gets 25 percent of the vote.

“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who has worked on five presidential campaigns but is neutral this election cycle told The Register. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one’s second choice.”

So, much depends on the ability of GOP caucus kingmaker Bob Vander Plaats, who has wielded powerful influence in the past two caucus cycles, to deliver thousands of evangelical voters in support of Cruz. Vander Plaats anointed Cruz last year, and the Texas senator also has the backing of Congressman Steve King and Iowa talk-radio host Steve Deace, who also hold sway with Iowa’s most conservative Christian voters.

Also in play is Trump’s ability to turn out first-time caucus-goers to their neighborhood gatherings Monday night. In the Iowa Poll, he wins by 16 points if they show up. If they stay home and the selection comes down to more traditional caucusers, Cruz wins by 3 percent.

The poll was taken from Jan. 26-29, so it’s unclear what, if any, effect Trump’s decision to skip the Jan. 28 debate may have.

Don’t Count Out Vander Plaats’ Influence

Iowans learned eight years ago not to discount Vander Plaats’ power.

In the past two Iowa Caucuses, his endorsements translated to winning tickets out of Iowa for lesser-known Republican candidates. Vander Plaats endorsed the 2012 Iowa GOP Caucus winner, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and in 2008, a little-known former governor from Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, beat second-place finisher Mitt Romney by 9 points.

Trump downplayed Vander Plaats’ influence, attacking the conservative evangelical leader as a cheapskate, a “phony” and a “bad guy.”

Evangelicals do vote, and thrice-married Trump doesn’t curry much favor with that solid voting bloc.

Trump has been trying to play catchup, alluding to his Presbyterian faith, quoting scripture and promising to protect Christianity. Nationally, 42 percent of born-again Christians support Trump, according to a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, but to Iowa voters, Cruz, the son of a born-again Baptist minister, is the real deal.

Cruz is courting evangelicals’ vote with direct appeals to pastors in what might be called an evangelical Full Grassley, a reference to Chuck Grassley, senior U.S. senator from Iowa, who has a habit of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties each year. Cruz also ends many of his speeches with scripture and by asking his supporters to “lift up our country in prayer.”

The strategy for appealing to evangelicals is working for Cruz.

In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, Cruz had 33 percent of Iowa’s evangelical vote, Trump had 19 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who won the coveted Des Moines Register endorsement, had 14 percent.

Debate Skip a Fatal Mistake?

Whether Trump can turn boisterous support at rallies into caucus-night votes remains in question — especially after he skipped the debate because of a bitter feud with Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly.

Conservative Iowa blogger Craig Robinson, a conservative activist in Iowa, told CNN the strategy was “incredibly risky.”

“Does it create doubts about him?” Robinson wondered. “Or does it cement the fact that he is someone who beats to his own drum and just kind of dictates the terms of this nomination process?”

President Ronald Reagan skipped the last debate before the caucuses in 1980, and though he went on to win the general election by a landslide, he lost in Iowa to George H. Walker Bush, 31.6 percent to 29.5 percent.

Iowa State University political science professor Steffen Schmidt told NPR that Trump may be the one candidate able to pull off such a bold move.

“For a candidate to walk away from that is crazy — but crazy like a fox,” Schmidt said.

Trump said at his own rally, held Thursday as the debate was under way, that nobody knows if his decision to bypass the Fox event will hurt him on caucus day.

“Is it a good thing, a bad thing, will I get more votes, will I get less votes, nobody knows, who the hell knows?” he told the crowd.

GOP activist and former Iowa gubernatorial candidate Doug Gross told CNN Trump’s decision to skip the final debate will hurt his showing come caucus night.

“It’s the only Republican debate in our state, and he’s not even going to show up because he’s afraid of a woman reporter? What kind of a wimp is this?” Gross said. “Not showing up is not being bold. If you’re going to be president you at least have got to show up.”

The RedState.com website went so far as to say Trump skipped Thursday’s final GOP debate in Des Moines to blame Fox News when he loses the caucuses, which the website seems certain will happen.

“He’s going to play the victim card. It’s probably going to work,” the blog says.

Trump is praised as a master strategist by the website, one savvy enough to have steered clear of Thursday’s policy discussion on immigration and foreign policy.

“If he wins Iowa without the debate, he’s in the strongest possible position to win the nomination. If he loses but has the Fox News asterisk to place next to his defeat, he’ll attempt to turn that into momentum for New Hampshire and beyond,” the website says.

Monmouth Poll: Trump Needs 170,000 Turnout

Iowa Republican Chair Jeff Kaufmann told Iowa Public Radio Friday that turnout for the caucuses could exceed 120,000 — which would come close to the 122,000 mark set in 2012.

“Party headquarters have had more calls from independents and Democrats changing their registration to vote for Donald Trump than ever,” Kaufmann said.

But, Kaufmann said, voters are “pretty fluid” in the days before the caucuses, and many have said they could still be convinced to switch allegiances. The Iowa Poll affirms that, showing 9 percent of voters were uncommitted in the week preceding the caucuses, and 45 percent said they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Iowa Poll director Selzer says “turnout seems not to affect” Trump, who is “on solid ground” regardless of the number of Republicans who caucus Monday.

A recent Monmouth University poll disagrees. It said that for Trump to win, about 170,000 Iowa Republicans would have to turn out. The pollsters said Trump draws a disproportionate amount of support from voters who aren’t political diehards.

“Turnout is basically what separates Trump and Cruz right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ. “Trump’s victory hinges on having a high number of self-motivated, lone wolf caucus-goers show up Monday night.”

Nasty Weather Could Affect Turnout

Those unfamiliar with Iowa’s process might think getting voters to show up is a low hurdle. But unlike primaries in other states that give voters a day-long window to cast their votes, Iowa caucus-goers must show up at an appointed time. Historically, only about 20 percent of the electorate actually turns out, according to the Iowa Caucus Project.

Though Republicans use a far simpler straw poll process than Democrats, who require candidates to get support from at least 15 percent of the participants at a precinct to be considered viable, it’s still more cumbersome to caucus than it is to vote in a primary — one of a litany of criticisms against Iowa’s process.

To win, Trump needs warm bodies at the caucuses, Kaufmann said.

Kaufmann said there’s a difference between showing passion for a campaign and coming home from a day’s work and mustering the motivation to go out on a cold winter night to caucus.

Iowa weather also affect caucus turnout.

The forecast: A huge winter storm is expected to hit Iowa next week, and some forecast models call for icy weather as Iowans go to their caucus locations at 7 p.m. Monday.

» Photo by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons

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