Groundhog Day Forecast: Repeated Snow Chances In Maryland

BALTIMORE, MD — The weather-forecasting groundhog Punxsutawney Phil isn’t likely to see his shadow on Groundhog Day, Feb. 2, and neither will Marylanders with clouds and snow making Friday feeling much more like winter with a 60 percent chance of the white stuff. According to folklore, spring will come early if the groundhog doesn’t see its shadow and will last another six weeks if it does. For the record, spring doesn’t officially arrive this year until March 20, and that’s a little more than six weeks away.

The National Weather Service predicts cloud cover in Punxsutawney and a fair chance of snow. Long-range forecasts suggest bitterly cold temperatures will persist from the Midwest to the Northeast. Temperatures plummet in the Mid-Atlantic with brisk wind chills returning for the weekend.

Punxsutawney Phil, the famous handle given to those varmints that are roused at sunrise for the annual ritual, isn’t that accurate a barometer for the end of the winter — surprising considering the ritual has been going on for more than 120 years.

Stormfax Almanac, which keeps records, says Punxsutawney Phil has been correct only 39 percent of the time. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club says its records show groundhog forecasts have predicted more winter in 103 cases and early springs in 17. About nine years of records are missing. Did the groundhogs revolt? No one knows.

The ritual involving Punxsutawney Phil is a big deal in the Pennsylvania town of about 5,800, but several other states have their own observances. In Baltimore, Heavy Seas Beer, 1300 Bank Street, is planning a party, or you can join the Baltimore Architecture Foundation for its annual Groundhog Day fundraiser at the Marble Bar. In Montgomery County, on Feb. 1. Groundhog Day will be celebrated for kids with crafts at the Meadowside Nature Center in Rockville, while at 11 a.m. on Feb. 2. the Groundhog Day Celebration includes a story, craft and hike at the Black Hill Visitor Center in Boyds, or a Feb. 2. Groundhog Celebration at noon through slideshows, a hike and activities at theLocust Grove Nature Center in Bethesda.

Punxsutawney Phil makes his predictions at Gobbler’s Knob in the Pennsylvania Wilds, and everyone who’s anyone comes out to see him.

According to AccuWeather.com, which will release its region-by-region spring forecast Feb. 7, winter isn’t leaving anytime soon. Bitterly cold air will make a return by mid-February, and several regions are in for a lot more snow, say AccuWeather long-range meteorologists, who predict cold weather will dominate throughout the month of February. The main storm track from the East Coast will favor the Northeast and mid-Atlantic throughout February, allowing for a few powerful storms to impact the I-95 corridor.

Here's the Maryland forecast heading into Groundhog Day:

Thursday: A slight chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Rain showers before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Rain and snow showers likely, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Breezy, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Northwest wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 41. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Here are five things to know about Groundhog Day:

1. Before there was a Groundhog Day, there was Candlemas, an early Christian holiday in which candles were blessed and distributed by local clergy. The celebrants eventually declared that clear skies on Candlemas meant winter would persist. Germans selected an animal — the hedgehog — to predict the end of winter, and brought the idea to America. Groundhogs, which are also known as woodchucks, were plentiful in Pennsylvania, where many Germans settled, so the tradition was Americanized.

2. Punxsutawney Phil has his own “inner circle” — the guys who are always pictured wearing top hats as he emerges. They’re a group of local dignitaries charged with planning the festivities and ensuring they come off without a hitch every year, but also with the feeding and care of Phil.

3. Punxsutawney Phil is pretty spoiled. He doesn’t have to burrow into the dirt to survive winter like less-famous groundhogs. He lives in a warm terrarium built into the Punxsutawney library and visitors can stop and gawk at him any time they want.

4. Groundhogs have an average lifespan of six to eight years, ten tops, but Punxsutawney Phil gets a life-extending elixir — called “groundhog punch” — every summer during the annual Groundhog Picnic to extend his lifespan by as much as seven years. An added effect of the punch is that it makes Phil appear to have gotten a dye job, because his coat might be gray one year and a youngish-looking brown the next.

5. The 1993 movie “Groundhog Day” gave the celebration in Punxsutawney a big boost. Bill Murray stars as a hapless weatherman named Phil. Dispatched to cover the emergence of the groundhog from its hole, he is caught in a blizzard he didn’t predict. Trapped in a time warp, he can’t escape and must live the day over and over until he gets it right. Murray went to Punxsutawney in 1992 to prepare for the role, and by 1997, the number of people attending the festivities had swelled to about 35,000 visitors.

You can catch The Weather Channel’s live coverage of the event starting at 4 a.m. ET Friday with Jim Cantore and Jen Carfagno.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images News/Getty Images