Major Snowfall In MD This Winter Is More Likely: Early Forecast

BALTIMORE, MD — You're probably not thinking a whole lot about winter after just enduring a couple days of heat indexes in the 100s and the official start of summer. But if you're the curious sort, some early, early projections indicate that this winter could be a very snowy one.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang says that they are starting to see signs of an above-average winter in terms of snowfall for the region, pointing to three factors in particular.

Specifically, they noted the fact that the National Weather Service has declared an El Nino watch, calling for a weak to moderate event this winter. El Nino boosts odds of snow, and we have had snowier than average winters about two-thirds of the time when there is an El Nino event going on, the report notes.

We get about 26.5 inches of snow over the winter on average with El Nino, compared to 10.5 inches for its opposite effect, La Nina.

Then there's the fact that Pacific Ocean is warming, which causes the jet stream to flow into the eastern United States, sending that cold air that is desperately needed for snow to form.

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Additionally, the sun is entering into a quiet solar period, and that can have an impact on the weather as well.

"[Q]uiet solar periods with reduced sunspot activity are connected to zones of high pressure in the high latitudes, which favor colder than normal air in the eastern United States and Western Europe," CWG writes.

So those are three very big factors that point in favor of a snowy winter. That doesn't mean it's a sure thing yet, but it's definitely something you should keep an eye on as the year progresses.

"Moving forward, days shorten and, in about a month, average temperatures start to fall," The Capital Weather Gang writes. "Although making projections about the winter are difficult even in the fall, there are important indicators developing in the summer that point to possible snow excitement in the winter."

With all that said, it’s early yet. "The winds along the equator are difficult to predict more than a week in advance, and as much as westerly wind bursts can help El Niño develop, so easterly wind bursts (when the trade winds strengthen) can discourage El Niño," says the Weather Service. "Forecasters feel that current conditions are favorable for El Niño, so an El Niño Watch has been raised. But we’ll keep a weather eye on those conditions as summer progresses."

But don't give it too much thought. After all, Thursday was the official first day of summer. It's time to think about swimming pools, vacations, and grilling out for the Fourth of July.

Read also:

• MD Spring, Summer Forecast 2018 First Look
• MD Summer 2018 Is Going To Be Blazing Hot: Farmers' Almanac

Story by Patch Editor Dan Taylor

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