Democrat Leads MD Governor's Race, Hogan Viewed More Favorably Than Biden: Goucher Poll

MARYLAND — The Democratic nominee for Maryland governor leads his Republican opponent just under two months before the election, a new poll found. Goucher College on Monday released its latest survey on the general election, which is slated for Nov. 8.

Maryland is a traditionally blue state, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1. Voters, however, elected moderate Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in the past two elections. Hogan can't seek a third term because of term limits, so some Republican leaders are urging him to run for president in 2024.

Around 53 percent of likely Maryland voters plan to vote for Democratic nominee Wes Moore this time around. On the other hand, 31 percent said they will vote for Republican nominee Dan Cox. Libertarian David Lashar holds 4 percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Nancy Wallace has 2 percent.

Of the respondents who chose a candidate, 69 percent said they are "set on this candidate." About 28 percent could change their mind.

Voters gave Moore ratings of 53 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 13 percent don't know.

Cox collected ratings of 30 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable and 14 percent don't know.

Voters described Moore as:

• Far or extreme right: 2 percent
• Conservative: 5 percent
• Moderate: 22 percent
• Progressive or liberal: 36 percent
• Far or extreme left: 13 percent

Marylanders said Cox is:

• Far or extreme right: 35 percent
• Conservative: 24 percent
• Moderate: 12 percent
• Progressive or liberal: 4 percent
• Far or extreme left: 5 percent

Democrats held similar leads in other statewide races. Here are the current projections for those contests.

Maryland Attorney General

• Anthony Brown (D): 53 percent
• Michael Peroutka(R): 31 percent
• Undecided: 15 percent

State Comptroller

• Brooke Lierman (D): 48 percent
• Barry Glassman (R): 35 percent
• Undecided: 16 percent

U.S. Senate

• Chris Van Hollen (D): 56 percent
• Chris Chaffee (R): 33 percent
• Undecided: 8 percent

The Democrats are "in a strong position to sweep the statewide contests this cycle," said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics at Goucher College.

Related:

• Hogan Visits Davos Forum As Analysts Predict Presidential Run
• Hogan To Publish Book, Supporters Push For 2024 Presidential Run

"Wes Moore is viewed favorably by a majority of state voters, and perceptions of his mix of progressive and moderate politics aligns with how many Maryland voters view themselves," Kromer said in a press release. "Dan Cox's endorsement from former President Donald J. Trump and his own political views secured his primary win but remain at odds with the Democratic and independent voters he needs to build a winning coalition."

Hogan, Biden, Trump Ratings

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan continued his streak of strong approval ratings, which peaked at 71 percent in October 2020. In the most recent poll, 62 percent of Marylanders approved of the job that Hogan is doing. Another 28 percent disapproved, and 8 percent said they don't know.

Here were Hogan's ratings from each party:

• Among Democrats: 64 percent approve, 28 percent disapprove
• Among independents: 65 percent approve, 24 percent disapprove
• Among Republicans: 58 percent approve, 30 percent disapprove

Marylanders were split on their view of Democratic President Joe Biden. A total of 48 percent approved of his work, while 48 percent disapproved.

Here were Biden's ratings from each party:

• Among Democrats: 74 percent approve, 22 percent disapprove
• Among independents: 37 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove
• Among Republicans: 14 percent approve, 84 percent disapprove

Trump, a Republican, has lower ratings. He holds a 32 percent favorability rating in Maryland. Around 61 percent of state residents view him unfavorably.

Here were Trump's ratings from each party:

• Among Democrats: 12 percent favorable, 85 percent unfavorable
• Among independents: 31 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable
• Among Republicans: 69 percent favorable, 21 percent unfavorable

Methodology

Pollsters surveyed 1,008 Maryland adults, including 748 likely voters, from Sept. 8 through Sept. 12. Interviews were conducted via random digit dialing over landlines and cell phones between 1 p.m. and 9 p.m. each day.

The sample was weighted to match the local trends in gender, age, race, region of residency and educational attainment. The sample was not weighted for party, ideology or income.

The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points for all state residents. That means there is a 95 percent chance that the actual portion of residents who share those beliefs falls within 3.1 percentage points in either direction of the values listed in the survey.

If you only count the likely voters, the margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points.

The Goucher College poll came in partnership with the Baltimore Banner and 88.1 FM WYPR.

The full results are posted here.

Editor's Note: A previous version of this story misspelled David Lashar's name. Patch fixed the error and updated this article. We apologize for our mistake.