No Clear Favorites For Governor Among MD Democrats: Goucher Poll

BALTIMORE, MD — Maryland Democrats don't have a frontrunner yet in the crowded primary field for governor, but the majority favor two-term U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin for re-election over Wikileaks activist and challenger Chelsea Manning for Senate, according to a newly released Goucher Poll. Maryland's primary election will be held June 26. The general election is Nov. 6.

The 2018 governor's racehas Republican Gov. Larry Hogan facing a large field of Democrats, including Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker III, Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, former NAACP president Ben Jealous, state Sen. Richard S. Madaleno Jr., attorney James Shea, tech entrepreneur Alec Ross, and former Michelle Obama aide Krishanti Vignarajah. Baker and Jealous are seeking to become the state's first African-American governor.

Manning, the former Army private convicted of leaking troves of government documents to WikiLeaks, filed paperwork in January to run for Cardin's U.S. Senate seat, according to Federal Election Commission Filings.
The filing states that Manning is running as a Democrat and lives in North Bethesda.

Manning was sentenced to serve 35 years in prison but former President Barack Obama commuted her sentence last year. The day after her sentencing, Manning revealed that she was a transgender woman. Her time in prison had come under scrutiny and her alleged mistreatment led her to attempt suicide twice while serving time at a male military penitentiary. When her commutation was announced, Manning said that when released she wanted to give back to help the trans community. Manning is a progressive activist and writes on various issues including transparency, free speech and civil liberties.

The poll surveyed 409 Maryland Democratic primary voters from Feb. 12-18 and has a margin of error of +/-4.8 percent. When asked to describe their own political ideology, 44 percent of Democratic likely voters say they are “progressive,” 43 percent say they are “moderate,” and 10 percent say they are “conservative.”

Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates currently running in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Majorities, in some cases large majorities, of Democratic likely voters indicated that they “don’t know” whether they viewed each candidate favorably or unfavorably.

Baker had the highest favorability rating at 30 percent. Jealous and Kamenetz register a 28 percent and 22 percent favorability rating, respectively.

If the primary election were held today, 19 percent say they would vote for Baker, 12 percent say their choice would be Kamenetz, and 10 percent would choose Jealous. Forty-seven percent say they don’t know what Democratic candidate they would support if the election were held today.

Education (26 percent), economy/jobs (20 percent), racial/social justice (16 percent), and healthcare (14 percent) were identified as the most important issues in determining a vote for governor among Democratic likely voters.

“Days out from the candidate filing deadline, our poll suggests that Democratic voters have yet to turn their full attention to the gubernatorial race,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center in a news release. “With so many undecided voters, there is ample time and room for the field to shift— even dramatically. Yet, at the same time, the lesser-known candidates need to increase their name recognition soon or this primary could become a three-way race.”

Democratic Senatorial Primary

The entry of Manning brought an uneventful U.S. Senate race briefly into the spotlight.

Democratic voters were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of incumbent Cardin and Manning. Senator Cardin registered strong favorability ratings among Democratic likely voters; 64 percent hold a favorable opinion of Cardin and 15 percent hold an unfavorable opinion. Forty-four percent of Democratic likely voters were unable to gauge how they viewed Manning; 19 percent hold a favorable opinion of Manning and 37 percent hold an unfavorable opinion.

If the primary election were held today, 61 percent say they would vote for Cardin and 17 percent for Manning. Nineteen percent say they “don’t know” what Democratic candidate they would support of the election were held today.

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See more about the Goucher Poll methodology.

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