Big Weather Shift Headed To MD: See Forecast, Timing

Following a brief warmup on Monday, two rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible in the Baltimore region later this week, accompanied by several days of below-normal temperatures in Maryland.

The remainder of Tuesday should be mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the early afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than Monday with highs in the mid-60s, according to forecasts.

Wednesday will shift more toward the wet side as a storm system moves in from the Midwest, and according to AccuWeather meteorologists, it will be in no hurry to leave.

"The rain that is forecast to fall in the mid- to late week period for the Northeast and New England is going to be a good, soaking rain for many," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. "This will be beneficial in the short term, as much of the area could measure between a half inch and one inch of rain."

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday, over 58 percent of the 12-state (and District of Columbia) Northeast climate region, from West Virginia, D.C., and Maryland northward, is at least abnormally dry, with 42 percent in drought conditions. This is mostly concentrated in areas east of the Appalachians from Pennsylvania north, but includes most of the area south of the Pennsylvania-Maryland border, where drought was most intense.

Thunderstorms could also develop across the region after 2 p.m. Wednesday as a cold front moves into the state and will possibly linger into the overnight hours, according to the National Weather Service. Maryland is under a Marginal Risk for severe weather, with damaging winds likely to be the primary threat.

On Thursday, chillier air will arrive behind the storm via gusty north and northwesterly winds, possibly dropping temperatures to 5 to 15 degrees below historical averages in most areas for the second half of the week through at least the first weekend of May, Accuweather forecasters wrote.

Forecasted highs on Thursday should push into the upper 50s to mid-60s, forecasters said. Conditions should be dry with nighttime lows falling into the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Heading into the weekend, cooler, drier air and diminishing winds could all lead to possible frost formation in parts of the region Friday night through Sunday night.

"Freezing temperatures could also evolve and spread eastward toward the more populated areas outside of the Alleghenies," NWS forecasters wrote. "Low temperatures each night could be widespread 30s with lower 40s well to the east."

A second round of showers is possible Saturday, but confidence remains low, wrote The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang.

"Models have been waffling between keeping heavier rain and storms to our south or bringing them into the Beltway area," Capital Weather Gang forecasters wrote. "Rain would keep highs in the 50s; fewer showers and brighter skies may allow us to warm into the 60s."

Here's a look at the detailed National Weather Service forecast for the Baltimore region:

Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.

Wednesday: A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High near 67. Southeast wind 5 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 49. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.

Friday Night: A chance of showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64.