Goucher Poll: Marylanders Back Hogan, Obamacare; Reject Trump

BALTIMORE, MD — Marylanders support Republican Gov. Larry Hogan as he seeks re-election, a $15 an hour minimum wage and Obamacare, while saying their taxes are too high and they have little support for the job President Donald Trump is doing, according to the latest Goucher Poll released Tuesday. Hogan didn't support Trump and refused to vote for him in November — and most Marylanders don't view the president as a factor in the gubernatorial race, previous poll showed.

The Goucher Poll asked Maryland residents about their opinions on the direction of the state, taxes, personal financial situations, health care, taxes, Gov. Hogan, President Trump, minimum wage, and the legalization of recreational marijuana. The poll surveyed 831 Maryland adults from Sept. 11-16 and has a margin of error of +/-3.4 percent.

Direction of the State, Taxes, Personal Financial Situation, and the Minimum Wage: Last September, 55 percent said Maryland was heading in the right direction and 31 percent said Maryland is off on the wrong track—the lowest point during Hogan’s tenure in office. That number rebounded in February, but has since fallen back. Fifty-four percent say Maryland is heading in the right direction and 30 percent say Maryland is off on the wrong track.

Support for increasing the statewide minimum wage to $15 per hour has risen slightly among Marylanders since last spring. Seventy-one percent of Marylanders support raising the statewide minimum wage to $15 dollars per hour, 25 percent oppose it. By comparison, in February 2018, 66 percent supported increasing the minimum wage in Maryland to $15 per hour. The majority of Marylanders—56 percent—consider the overall amount of state taxes they have to pay as “too high,” while 41 percent say the amount of state taxes they have to pay is “about right.” Only 2 percent think they pay “too little” in state taxes. Residents were also asked what groups of people they think the Maryland tax system favors:

• 48 percent say it favors the wealthy
• 13 percent say it treats everyone equally
• 9 percent say it favors the poor
• 8 percent say it favors the middle class

Marylanders are divided in their trust in the state government to spend their tax dollars wisely. Fifty-five percent have “no” or “a little” trust, while 42 percent have “some” or “a lot” of trust. Attitudes toward personal financial situations were also measured. A majority of residents — 51 percent — expect their current financial situation to get better a year from now. Thirty-six percent expect it to stay about the same and 10 percent expect it to get worse. Looking back, 32 percent say their financial situation is “better” than it was a year ago, 53 percent say it’s “about the same,” and 14 percent say it’s “worse.”

“It’s clear why taxes are a persistent concern for voters—Marylanders think they pay too much in taxes, that the tax system favors the rich, and don’t trust the state government to spend their money wisely,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center, in a news release. “But misgivings toward taxes aside, residents hold a positive outlook for their personal financial situations.”

Medicare for All and the Affordable Care Act: Marylanders express similarly favorable opinions toward the Affordable Care Act—commonly known as Obamacare—and Medicare for All, a single payer health care system.

• 60 percent hold a favorable opinion of the Affordable Care Act/Obamacare and 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of it.
• 54 percent hold a favorable opinion of Medicare for All/single-payer health system and 33 percent hold an unfavorable opinion of it.

Respondents were then asked whether they wanted Maryland elected officials to focus on “improving the way the Affordable Care Act is working for Maryland” or “adopting a statewide, single payer Medicare for All plan for Maryland.”

• 46 percent prefer that Maryland elected officials focus on improving the Affordable Care Act.
• 29 percent prefer that Maryland elected officials focus on adopting a statewide, single payer Medicare for All plan.

“Support for a state-based Medicare for All plan distinguished Ben Jealous as a candidate for governor from the rest of field during the Democratic primary,” said Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. “However, opinions toward adopting a single-payer health care system are nuanced. Marylanders do view Medicare for All favorably, but a majority still prefers that elected officials focus on improving the way the Affordable Care Act is working for Maryland.”

Gov. Larry Hogan and President Donald Trump: Marylanders have consistently given Hogan good marks during his tenure as governor. Sixty-four percent of Marylanders approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor, 17 percent disapprove, and 17 percent say they don’t know.

Marylanders continue to give the job performance of President Trump low marks. Twenty-three percent of Marylanders approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president and 71 percent disapprove. Maryland residents were asked additional questions about Hogan, including his ideological leanings and his distance from Trump; attitudes are consistent with the findings of the April 2018 Goucher Poll.

• 48 percent of Marylanders think that Gov. Hogan is a moderate, 27 percent see him as a conservative, and 10 percent view the governor as a progressive. Fourteen percent say they don’t know.
• 45 percent of Maryland residents believe that Gov. Hogan has distanced himself about the right amount from President Trump. Twenty-four percent of respondents believe Gov. Hogan has distanced himself too little from President Trump, and 8 percent think he has distanced himself too much from President Trump. Twenty-one percent say they don’t know.

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Legalization of Recreational Marijuana: Most Marylanders—62 percent—support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use, and 33 percent oppose legalization.

Download the complete results, including methodology and question design. To view archived polls, visit www.goucher.edu/poll.

About the poll: The Goucher Poll is conducted under the auspices of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College. Directed by Dr. Mileah Kromer, the Goucher Poll conducts surveys on public policy, economic, and social issues in Maryland. Goucher College supports the Goucher Poll as part of its mission to instill in its students a sense of community where discourse is valued and practiced. The Goucher Poll is fully funded by the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center endowment and does not take additional funding from outside sources.

Photo courtesy of Gov. Larry Hogan's office