Will Jake Arrieta ever figure it out with the Baltimore Orioles?

Jake Arrieta’s time in the big leagues has been defined by inconsistent outings and unfulfilled potential, and he’s running out of time to deliver on the expectations that have followed him since making his major league debut on June 10, 2010.  

After a disappointing start to the 2013 campaign, Arrieta, who is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in the big leagues, finds himself on the outside looking in for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation, having been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk for the second time this season. Arrieta, once considered a blue-chip prospect, was demoted prior to a May 23 game at Toronto to make room for the much-anticipated debut of phenom Kevin Gausman, the team’s first-round draft pick last June.

This way supposed to be the year that it all clicked for Arrieta, but to the casual baseball fan it looks as if he’s been cursed as an AAAA player.  

Despite a 20-24 record and 5.40 ERA in parts of four major-league seasons, he continues getting chances to compete at the big league level. When he’s at his best, he’s almost unhittable. This was best exemplified during his third start of the season against the Tampa Bay Rays April 16, when he went five innings, allowing one run and three hits, with five walks, seven strikeouts and one home run. 

It’s performances like this that have continued to give him the opportunity to break spring training with a spot in the rotation. In fact, it’s also one of the reasons he’s started three consecutive home openers.

Arrieta possess all the tools you look for in a pitcher. He has electric stuff, a great work ethic and seems willing to learn. So what’s the problem?

The problem is that Arrieta can’t maintain consistency, and as soon as it looks like he’s putting it all together, he allows a batter to reach base and suddenly his pitch count – and often the opponent’s score – balloon. When things go bad, he implodes. In the blink of an eye, he goes from a guy who pounds the strike zone to a guy who starts surrendering walks on four pitches.

For example, during the team’s home opener against the Minnesota Twins April 5, Arrieta pitched like an ace for the first three innings. In the fourth inning, however, Arrieta unraveled. After allowing a leadoff double and walk to Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau, respectively, he followed that up by recording back to back strikeouts of Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe before allowing three straight two out hits that allowed the Twins to plate four runs.

Frankly, there’s nothing more he can learn from Triple-A, where he typically dominates when he gets his act together. At age 27, Arrieta is no spring chicken. His days as a prospect are over. For Arrieta, it’s getting to the point where it’s time to sink or swim.

In deciding on Arrieta’s immediate future, the easy thing to do would be to cut bait too soon than hang on too long. Though there are 29 other teams that would take a flier on an arm with a 95 mph heater, a devastating curveball and biting slider, it’s wishful thinking to believe the Orioles would get anything more than a second-tier prospect or two in return. And then, there’s the gut-wrenching feeling that Arrieta figures it out somewhere else.

The second school of thought is to move him to the bullpen, the way the Orioles did with Brian Matusz – another former top pitching prospect – last season.

In 18 regular-season relief appearances, Matusz was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 13.1 innings. Appearing in all six of the team’s postseason contests, the 25-year-old recorded five scoreless outings and allowed just one run and two hits while striking out six batters in 4.2 innings. Despite that small sample size, Matusz proved to overpower hitters, averaging 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings (including his playoff numbers) compared to just 6.6 as a starter, PressBox beat pointed Paul Folkemer out in February.

Moving to the bullpen may not be ideal for Arrieta, but it would give him an opportunity to reinvent himself.

At some point, Arrieta will be back. He’ll be back, because he’s too talented for the Orioles to give up on him yet. Plus, not all of his problems are going to be completely fixed in Norfolk.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find someone with Arrieta’s level of talent. But there’s a growing concern as to whether he can make it work in an Orioles uniform.