Orioles' Chris Davis early front-runner for AL MVP

The way most folks see it, the American League most valuable player award is already shaping up into a two-horse race between the Orioles’ Chris Davis and Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera.

Sure, we’re still not halfway through this season, but if both Cabrera and Davis continue to keep it up, the pair will separate themselves from the pack and generate a heated debate about the relative value of each as the season progresses.

At the moment, Cabrera and Davis are the top two statistical leaders in all three American League Triple Crown categories.

Cabrera, 30, who last year won the American League MVP and became the first player to win a Triple Crown since the Boston Red Sox’s Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, is first in batting averaging (.359), first in runs batted in (71) and tied for second in home runs (19). Meanwhile, Davis, 27, a blossoming star, is first in homers (26), second in batting average (.337) and second in runs batted in (66).

Davis went 3-for-5 with two home runs and drove in five runs Wednesday in Detroit as the Orioles took the rubber match during the final game of their three-game series against the American League Central-leading Tigers, 13-3. He had a big series, going 5-for-13 with three home runs, one double and six runs batted in.

As for Cabrera, he became the first player since Ted Williams in 1948 to collect at least 100 hits and 71 RBI through his team’s first 70 games, Larry Lage of The Associated Press pointed out on Wednesday. Yes, it’s a rather random statistic to make note of a hot pace, but Cabrera’s numbers are so impressive that it’s worthy of digging through the archives to find such gems.

Still, if the voting was done today, Davis may very well be the American League MVP. Well, he would at least have a legitimate chance. Before I continue, let me make one thing clear: I’m not talking about who I would cast my vote for, because I don’t have a vote.

The number geeks will love this: Davis leads the league in OPS (1.132) and total bases (190), ranks second in doubles (23) and third in runs scored (53).  In addition, he’s leading in OPS+ (adjusted on base plus slugging percentage) at 195 and third in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) among position players (3.6). Davis is on pace to hit 58 home runs with 146 RBIs, numbers that are better than Cabrera’s Triple Crown numbers from last season.

Davis has the better power numbers by a significant margin, but Cabrera has been a hitting machine. Cabrera leads the league in on-base percentage (.450) and WAR (4.0) and ranks second in hits (100). He is currently on pace to hit 44 dingers and knock in 164 RBIs.

It’s worth mentioning that many voters use team performance as a major criterion in MVP voting.  There are only five MVP winners who played for a losing team (Ernie Banks (twice), Andre Dawson, Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez.) Luckily, for Davis and Cabrera, both of their teams are currently positioning themselves for postseason berths, but the Orioles (42-31) have a better record than Tigers (40-31) and also play in baseball’s toughest division. The latter should only strengthen Davis’ case.

But there is no wrong answer when choosing between Davis and Cabrera. A strong argument can be made that either one of these brawny sluggers is the most potent hitter in the game right now.  

With the vote over 2.5 months away, it’s only natural to wonder if these two will remain atop the MVP discussion. We know what Cabrera can do, so he’s not going anywhere. He’s been the model of consistency ever since bursting on the baseball scene as a 20-year-old slugging prodigy. In fact, I have a hard time thinking someone other than Cabrera is the best hitter on the planet.

The question many pundits and fans are wondering is: Can Davis continue to rake at his current pace?

All indications suggest that he can. For starters, good hitters know how to make adjustments at the major league leave and breakout years ensue.

Look, for example, at what the Blue Jays’ Jose Bautista has done over the last several years. Bautista went from a journeyman to superstar almost overnight. After hitting just 13 home runs in 2009, he belted a career-best 54 homers the following season, an unprecedented total for someone who had never hit more than 16 during a season in his first six years in the big leagues.

Unlike Bautista, though, Davis has always been perceived as a hitter who could develop into a bona fide slugger. He showed flashes of it as a 22-year-old rookie in 2008, when he clubbed 17 home runs and had 55 RBIs in 295 at-bats for the Texas Rangers. He hit 21 homers during his sophomore campaign in 391 at-bats, but his batting average dipped from .285 to .238.

Davis’ 3.5-year stint in Texas was defined by his failure to control the strike zone, particularly his ability to draw a walk while striking out at a rate almost double the league average. At the time, it was attributed to his free-swinging ways and his pitch recognition – or lack thereof.

Even last season, when Davis set career highs for home runs (33) and RBIs (85), he struck out 169 times and walked only 37 times in 562 plate appearances. In only 303 plate appearances this year, Davis has already drawn 32 walks.

If both Davis and Cabrera can continue hitting on their historic paces, the AL MVP race figures to be one of the most intriguing storylines down the stretch.