A strong El Niño expected to last through winter could have plenty to say about the season ahead in Massachusetts.
Overall, the El Niño climate pattern is expected to keep temperatures on the mild side, according to The Old Farmer's Almanac winter forecast. Some areas will see frigid temperatures, and some of the areas that typically get a lot of snow may not need their shovels this coming winter.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has New England as the battleground between "cold and snowy" and "mild and dry" with southern and coastal locations in Massachusetts and Rhode Island on the mild and dry side, while interior locations of central and western Massachusetts, and southern and central New Hampshire, could be more cold and snowy.
The climate pattern develops when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, changing atmospheric circulation and shifting weather patterns around the world.
A strong El Niño can move the jet stream and alter where rain, snow and cold air travel across North America. Such winters often bring milder temperatures to much of the country and wetter conditions to parts of the West and South, according to the Almanac.
This El Niño may be more than merely strong.
"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said earlier this month. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said in September that El Niño had strengthened further and had a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming very strong during the fall and winter. The agency put the chance of a historic event at 75 percent, up from 69 percent in August.
In the Pacific region scientists use to measure El Niño, water temperatures were about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in August, up from 2.5 degrees in July. Farther east, they were about 6 degrees above normal.
The World Meteorological Organization said El Niño was expected to intensify before peaking near the end of 2026, with effects on rainfall, drought, flooding and extreme heat potentially continuing well into 2027.
According to The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast, the best bets for a snowier-than-usual winter are central and southern New England, the Appalachians, the northern Rockies and nearby mountain states, the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. Mountain areas of California and the Southwest could also see near- to above-normal snowfall.
Other areas could still see plenty of snow, but seasonal totals could finish near or below normal.
And while the Almanac expects temperatures to be mild overall with near- or above-normal temperatures across most of the country, with colder temperatures from central New England through the Appalachians and Ohio Valley. Wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast across much of the West and parts of the South, Midwest and Florida.
It will still be a while before snow concerns become real around here, however, as temperatures heat up near 80 degrees this week before settling into another seasonable weekend, according to the National Weather Service:
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Wednesday Night
Increasing clouds, with a low around 61. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
A slight chance of showers after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night
A chance of showers, mainly between 9 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 6 to 8 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind 6 to 8 mph.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. North wind around 7 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Sunday
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind 5 to 7 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Northeast wind 8 to 11 mph.
Monday Night
A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. East wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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