El Niño ‘Supersized Before Our Eyes’ To Create Historic ‘Danger Zone Of Extreme Weather’

Forecasts indicate a strengthening, potentially historic El Niño is “being supersized before our eyes,” threatening extreme and varied winter conditions across different U.S. regions.

The World Meteorological Organization said Sept. 3 that El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event before peaking near the end of 2026. The U.N. agency said the effects on rainfall, drought, flooding and extreme heat could continue well into 2027.

“The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said of the supersized El Niño in a news release. “The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.”

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that changes atmospheric circulation and shifts weather patterns around the world. In the United States, its effects are generally most pronounced during winter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center confirmed in an update Thursday that El Niño strengthened further in August and has a greater than 90 percent chance of becoming very strong this fall and winter.

The agency also raised the chance of a historic event from 69 percent in August to 75 percent. In this case, “historic” means the three-month strength index would exceed previous El Niño events in NOAA’s record dating to 1950.

The Pacific Ocean continued to heat up in August, adding more fuel to El Niño. In the region scientists use to measure it, water temperatures were about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, compared with 2.5 degrees in July. Farther east, they were about 6 degrees above normal. That extra heat can shift the jet stream and increase the odds of a wetter winter across the southern United States and a warmer, drier one across much of the northern tier.

A stronger El Niño increases the odds that its familiar weather patterns will develop, but NOAA cautioned that those effects are not guaranteed in every region or community. Seasonal outlooks show whether an area has elevated odds of above-, below- or near-normal conditions. They do not predict individual snowstorms, floods, cold snaps or atmospheric rivers months in advance.

Nationally, NOAA’s latest long-range outlook favors wetter conditions across much of the southern United States, from California and the Southwest through the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Southeast, with wetter conditions eventually extending along much of the East Coast. Warmer and generally drier conditions are favored across much of the northern tier, including the northern Plains, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and inland Pacific Northwest. The Ohio and Tennessee valleys have no clear precipitation signal, while much of Alaska is expected to be warmer, with drier conditions developing across the mainland.

Here is what could be in store by region, according to NOAA’s 2026-27 regional winter outlook:

California and the Southwest: Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored this fall, particularly across the Southwest, Rockies and parts of California. The wet signal strengthens during winter, when the chances of above-normal precipitation exceed 50 percent along much of coastal California and into southern Arizona. Heavy precipitation could ease drought but also raise the risk of flooding, debris flows and disruptions from atmospheric rivers.

Southern Plains: Above-normal precipitation is favored in some areas this fall, although the outlook is less certain farther east. The chances of a wetter-than-normal season increase during winter, particularly during its later months.

Gulf Coast and Southeast: Parts of the coastal Southeast are favored to be wetter than normal this fall. By winter, the region has one of the strongest wet signals in the country, with the chances of above-normal precipitation exceeding 60 percent in parts of the Southeast.

East Coast: The fall outlook is mixed, with some dryness possible along the central Atlantic coast. From late fall into early spring, however, above-normal precipitation is favored along nearly the entire East Coast.

Great Lakes: Warmer-than-normal conditions are favored this fall, while parts of the region lean dry. The warmer signal continues into winter, along with a slight tilt toward below-normal precipitation.

Northeast: The region leans slightly drier than normal this fall overall, although short-term patterns may produce wetter periods. Warmer-than-normal conditions are favored this winter, while coastal areas increasingly lean wetter.

Pacific Northwest: A warmer-than-normal fall is favored overall. Warmer conditions are also favored this winter. Inland areas lean dry, although the dry signal typically associated with El Niño is less certain near the coast.

Northern Rockies and northern Plains: Warmer-than-normal conditions are favored this fall, while parts of the northern Rockies lean dry. The region is generally expected to remain warmer and drier than normal during winter.

Ohio and Tennessee valleys: NOAA found no strong winter precipitation signal for the region, meaning above-, below- and near-normal precipitation have roughly equal chances. Temperatures could also be pulled in opposite directions by El Niño’s cooling influence in the South and the long-term warming trend.

Alaska: Much of the state is favored to be warmer than normal this fall. During winter, the strongest warm signal shifts toward eastern and southeastern Alaska, while much of the mainland is expected to turn drier.

Importantly, a wetter winter does not necessarily mean a snowier one. Whether precipitation falls as rain, snow or ice depends on temperatures when individual storms arrive. Likewise, a warmer seasonal forecast does not rule out periods of bitter cold or major winter storms.

NOAA is scheduled to release updated winter temperature and precipitation outlooks Sept. 17.