How Snowy, Cold Will Winter Be In MA? New Predictions Released

An El Niño climate pattern "supersizing" in the Pacific is driving a new seasonal outlook that offers an early look at how much snow Massachusetts could get this winter.

With a greater than 90 percent chance of continuing and a 75 percent probability of reaching historic strength, a powerful El Niño is expected to significantly influence global weather this winter, according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center. Such intense El Niño conditions typically shift the main jet stream, channeling abundant tropical moisture across the southern United States and driving active storm tracks north along the Atlantic Seaboard.

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The new seasonal outlook for December, January and February reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern.

In Massachusetts, that could mean a much warmer and wetter winter season compared to the cold and snow of the past couple of years

The long-range forecast calls for a 50 to 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures for most of the state and a 40 to 50 percent chance of warmer temperatures for Cape Cod.

NOAA also called for a 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal precipitation — more likely rain than snow given the temperature outlook.

Forecasters said the new seasonal outlook reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern, with generally warmer conditions favored across the northern United States and wetter weather across much of the South.

The Northwest and parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes lean drier, while the northern tier, including the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, has some of the best odds for a warmer-than-normal winter.

California is expected to turn increasingly wet as winter gets underway. The Southeast is the part of the country most likely to be wetter than normal, although temperatures there are expected to stay closer to normal because El Niño often brings cooler winter weather to the region.

The entire Northeast also generally leans warmer than normal, with wetter conditions favored in some areas along the East Coast.