Scott Brown: Shaheen’s nightmare, or a dream matchup?

There is a lot of speculation right now about what one Scott Brown might chose to do when it comes to the prospect of challenging incumbent New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Brown is the most middle of the road of Rock Star Republicans (and Rock Star Republicans are pretty much an endangered species these days.) But legend is still on Brown’s side. Yes, he lost re-election in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts to Saint Elizabeth (Warren) of Cambridge in the tidal wave created by the 2012 Obama juggernaut. But New Hampshire (as I like to remind folks) is NOT Massachusetts. Sure, the Granite State has gotten bluer in recent elections, but New Hampshire is still a place full of Independent voters who tend to have a Libertarian streak. This could certainly help Brown who is fiscally conservative, business friendly, pro-choice and not likely to get bogged down in social issues that have hurt the GOP in recent contests.

Scott Brown’s legend is still based on the fact that he turned the Senate seat once owned by Edward M. Kennedy into “The People’s Seat” in Massachusetts. Had Brown’s re-election not fallen in a presidential year, a year where the Obama campaign effectively turned out every low-information voter from under every conceivable rock…he might have pulled off a successful re-election. Certainly the race would have been much closer. Here’s the good news: most of the Obama Low-Infos will not turn out again, certainly not in an off year election. Second, the thing that helped Brown win the special election in Massachusetts was a midterm malady known as “Obama-fatigue.” Fast forward to 2013. Given the battle over guns, the still sputtering economy, a still- jobless recovery and a world which becomes more uncertain each and every day, Obama midterms could become the gift that keeps on giving for the GOP again in 2014.

Let’s assume the Obamacare rollout continues on its disastrous track, the economy does not improve, and world events continue to make Americans question the President’s foreign policy leadership, people could begin to realize that they were voting more against Mitt Romney than for Barack Obama. If the environment turns sour for the President again as it did in 2010, Scott Brown could find himself in the money again, this time a few miles north in the Granite State.

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Brown would face a formidable challenge in incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. The former three-term NH Governor is popular and well respected. She is also more moderate than the wing nut lefties from the state’s two congressional districts; Carol Shea Porter (who if she loses will immediately secure a job haunting houses somewhere) and Tax Scoff Annie McLane Kuster, who is so steeped in liberal partisanship that she regularly drives on the left side of the road. Shaheen is quite different.

Shaheen is smart and about as politically savvy a pol as I’ve ever met in either party. In the last week, Team Shaheen has launched a series of fundraising mailers from which they claim to have netted big dividends, by directly mentioning the possibility of a Brown challenge. In spite of their bragging while dialing for dollars the fact is that if Brown were to jump in, Jeanne Shaheen at the very least would have an “uncomfortable” campaign. It would certainly be more than the walk down the beach she was planning on. Brown is well known, particularly in the southern tier of the state due to the influence of the Boston media market. That is critical, because that is where the voters are, and where he has the potential to rack up big wins in larger towns where voters have followed his career since he first claimed the Kennedy seat. Brown also has name ID and a certain built-in appeal given the many years he and his family have owned a second home on the NH seacoast. Brown’s mother and sister still live in New Hampshire and could be good surrogates on the campaign trail.

While Jeanne Shaheen will no doubt try and throw the “carpetbagger” label at Brown, his friends and neighbors in Rye can readily attest to the high profile presence he and his wife Gail have had in and around that town for more than 20 years. Speaking of Gail, her presence on WCVB proved to be a strong asset for Brown in his Massachusetts campaign, and she could do the same for him in NH next year.

Brown is not the Republican Shaheen was counting on for her upcoming reelection campaign. He is a big name who has already proven he can raise big money in Massachusetts, New Hampshire and nationwide. Brown’s fundraising prowess netted him over $68 million for his Massachusetts effort. That’s the kind of haul Shaheen can only dream about. And $60 million to spend in NH? That would be more than enough gross rating points to get his message across. Ideologically, both candidates are fairly moderate and well known, but with one significant difference. Scott Brown would not be caught in a potential “Obama vortex” in 2014. He could in fact refurbish his image as the giant killer he is known to be.

There is also something bigger at stake in the 2014 midterm.  It is the fact that while this will be a non-presidential year, it will clearly be the prelude to the launch of the ground game for the expected coronation of Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee in 2016. This is, after all, New Hampshire. Shaheen and Hillary are strong allies and you can expect the Clintons, including even the Big Dog himself, to return the many years of support afforded to them from the Shaheens by all but taking up residence in New Hampshire. Who knows, maybe Bill and Hill will buy a place and we can collect some hefty property taxes from the two of them. Democrats are laughing the Brown challenge of in NH. In fact last week, a DSCC spokesperson was asked about a potential Brown challenge and responded “Is it possible to quote someone laughing?”

These people may be whistling by the proverbial graveyard if the potential environment turns against Shaheen or the Democrats based on public opinion with regard to the President. This is the not the first time Brown has been laughed off by the Democrat chattering class (see “Marsha” Coakley 2010).

Clinton and Co. will be preparing a ground game for the Hillary 2016 effort. One Dem told me that this race will help us to build an unshakable organization, and the ability to ID and turn out voters in preparation for the 2016 NH Presidential Primary as well as the general election (in which NH might find itself once again to be a small but critical swing state).

In short, Shaheen becomes Hillary’s dry run for 2016. Shaheen’s people know it, and in many ways it is comforting to them. So for now at least, Team Shaheen feels reasonably optimistic. Brown’s overtures to the Granite State (including a series of visits) is allowing them to raise money, Hillary’s got their back and besides, Brown will never really do it anyway. Right?  He’s not serious…is he??  He couldn’t be.  

Maybe he is. For all the Democratic bravado that a potential Brown challenge is “no problem,” you can be sure that the Senator’s staff, and even the Senator herself, are not sleeping as well these days.

Brown is pushing the brand, pushing ratings with his FOX News appearances, and likely helping to drive clients to his newly minted partnership with the Nixon Peabody law firm. Is Scott Brown really going to do it? The Shaheen people might not be worried, but they should be.

For now let’s assume that Scott Brown might just do it. He might decide after reviewing a poll or two that he’s got one more giant to slay. It would make for a fascinating race and give Team Shaheen many more sleepless nights. They might want to rest up while they can.