The Biggest Brand in the GOP...Literally

"I'm not going to play politics" was the stated reason New Jersey governor Chris Christie gave for his decision to call for a special election to be held this fall to replace the late Democratic senator Frank Lautenberg.  Christie managed to anger both Republicans who wanted him to do the partisan thing and appoint one of their own for the balance of the term and Democrats who believe that a "special election" would be a waste of money and confuse the public as it would occur 3 weeks before Christie's own regularly scheduled reelection contest.  Christie wants to run up his presumed victory by keeping Newark Mayor Cory Booker (already a contender for Lautenberg's seat) off the top of the ticket which could have potentially depressed Christie's ability to clobber some unknown Passaic Housewife who will be his Democrat opponent.

So Christie, the larger than life GOP personality who will likely win a landslide re-election in deep blue New Jersey, takes the arrows from both sides of the political spectrum for now, but by the time the voters go to the polls he could win 65% or more of the popular vote.

That is a critical part of the Christie narrative for a possible 2016 presidential run. He can win reelection by the largest margin of any governor in the country.  Already Christie has positioned himself as the quintessential proper noun for the generically unbeatable chief executive in re-election spots and online videos with the tag: “Christie…The Governor."   This is a national campaign with the goal of running up the score so that Christie becomes the 400 pound gorilla in the 2016 GOP presidential pack. The Secret Service is already taking a Christie run seriously enough to have assigned him the secret service code name: "Triglyceride." Like the post 9-11 Rudy Giuliani who became "America's Mayor," Team Christie is making a political statement that is aimed far beyond Newark, Bergen County and the Jersey Shore. 

This is the same strategy George W. Bush employed in his 1998 reelection campaign for Governor of Texas, demurring on the possibility of a presidential run, even while importing contributors and sneaking potential political consultants for a 2000 presidential run into the State House in Austin under assumed names and wearing the requisite nose and glasses disguise.  Bush trounced his Democrat challenger by taking nearly 69 percent of the vote.  It was during his reelection campaign that then Governor George W. Bush began testing themes like "Compassionate Conservatism" and the ability to "reach across the aisle to lead."  The clear message to all potential inter-party rivals was that challenging the Bush brand, freshly reelected in a Texas landslide, would be a fool’s errand.  Clearly John McCain did not get the memo, but he couldn’t stop the inevitability of Bush as the GOP nominee.

Similarly, Christie is already an established brand as the fiery New Jersey Bull Dog, who has become synonymous with telling it like it is in an often amusing and unapologetic way. The "Tough Love Gov" may be the national brand the GOP is desperately seeking.  Christie’s ideology both attracts and offends equally.  He has challenged unions, cut taxes and reduced government spending and reformed welfare programs so significantly that even Snooki has been forced to get a real job when she's not binge drinking at the shore.

Christie clearly cuts both ways.  There's enough for most voters to love and hate that his political persona is hard to categorize in easy terms, although many in the GOP will try. But I'm betting that the GOP might begin to realize that a proven fiscal conservative, who has demonstrated an ability to be bi-partisan, might be just the ticket in 2016.

That does not mean that Christie won’t be ravaged from all sides.  You can be sure that his famous post Hurricane Sandy embrace and on-going bromance with President Obama will be prominently replayed to remind the party faithful of his "Dalliance with the Devil" at what many perceive was a pivotal time for Mitt Romney in 2012.  Democrats will rally labor, the pro-choice crowd and any female voter they can find that Christie is simply a warmed-over version of Mitt Romney in a fat suit.

That's all fine, but it’s just political process.  Primaries are inconvenient things in our democracy, but they have an interesting and largely predictable outcomes-especially in the GOP.  Big names, big brands, larger than life personalities and known commodities tend to win.  Is Christie conservative enough to win early primaries and caucuses?  Yes.  Is he moderate enough to move to the middle in a general election? Yes again.

Christie is unconventional.  He defies easy labels.  He is his own guy. Capisce?  That may not go over big with the far right of the GOP but in New Hampshire, where purple and blue have been the state's preference of late, he could do very well. Remember, independents vote in New Hampshire, and they don't vote for extremists in either party.

If the general election choice is the brash, bi-partisan governor of New Jersey versus the well worn and equally pilloried Hillary Clinton, would the race be a contest or Romney redux?  The answer is that Christie’s star power, his stand-up act and ability to confront, challenge, and engage voters will be a refreshing and bold change from the genial GOP contenders of the past.  This brand will “hunt” in a national race. 

Christie is setting the stage, teeing up the ball precisely for 2016.  That is exactly why he is one of the smartest guys in America.  I'm betting that makes him a larger than life early contender for the nomination.  As they would say in New Jersey:

"You got a problem with that?"