Ready For Hillary (...or not)

Hillary Rodham Clinton - the former first lady of both Arkansas and the United States, accomplished lawyer, Yale-educated liberal activist, former United States Senator, candidate for president and most recently President Obama’s Secretary of State - finds herself in a very odd place these days.  She is in the position of being the Democratic franchise candidate for 2016 in a party that regularly thumbs its nose at frontrunners and the idea of an “establishment.”  

She’s been here before.  In 2008 Hillary was viewed as the frontrunner heading into a primary in which a relatively unknown young Senator named Barack Obama challenged and beat her in a bitter and divisive inter-party scrum.

Clinton and Obama went on famously to bury the proverbial hatchet and Hillary found herself in the powerful and important cabinet position that had her traveling a complex world on behalf of Obama, logging more air miles and time out of the country than any previous Secretary of State.

But Hillary is finally in her proper (if slightly uncomfortable) place.  Once again, the undisputed frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, with precisely zero competition.  Joe Biden’s making some noise, but that’s likely just the result of a medication adjustment or gas.  Younger guns like Gov. Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, or even Saint Elizabeth of Cambridge might have an interest in a shot at the title, but this clearly seems to be Hillary’s time.

She has made all the right moves. The “Ready for Hillary" PAC formed earlier this year is already gaining steam through fundraising and endorsements. They have been hard at work, hiring the smartest Obama and former Clinton whiz kids ready to amass every bit of data they can to bring grassroots campaigning, driven by the boldest technical and digital tools, to even greater heights than Obama’s impressive 2012 effort. One thing the Obama guys really know how to do is gather data, largely with the help of the IRS and the NSA, so be ready for an all-out assault on Hillary’s behalf. 

Being the preordained nominee is an enviable position, but it can also be a bit frightening.  Consider that in the Democratic Party, primary frontrunners and presumptive favorites have lost again and again (see Truman, Johnson, Muskie, etc.) and the party has promoted relatively unknown commodities (like Carter,  Clinton, and our current President).

This phenomenon is precisely the opposite for the GOP, who rarely buck conventional wisdom, almost always nominating the franchise candidate or presumptive political figure “whose turn it is."  In 2016 there is NO GOP presumptive nominee.  Yes, Jeb Bush could be in the mix and the political narrative of another Bush vs. Clinton battle is almost too tantalizing to resist in a general election.  But for the most part, no smart money is parked on any one candidate on the GOP side of the aisle for 2016 - at least not yet.

Meanwhile Clinton has had the chance to travel, pen another book and raise money for the party.  Expect Hillary and Bill Clinton to use the 2014 congressional elections as a test for her 2016 effort with plenty of time, money, organization and effort to be spent in early primary states and delegate-rich strongholds where her assistance will be welcomed, appreciated and repaid in full by candidates who benefit from the Clinton largesse.

The Clinton’s are one of those political dynasties that just cannot be out of the limelight.  They remind us of that old country western tune, “How Can I Miss You When You Just Won’t Go Away’?  Bill Clinton, “The Big Dog," made himself a fixture in Obama’s re-election effort, giving perhaps the best speech of his life at the Democratic National Convention in 2012. The Clintons are like barnacles, affixed to the American political psyche and unwilling or unable to let go of power.  

No doubt Bill Clinton will be an enormous asset to Hillary’s 2016 campaign.  He believes she was cheated out of the job last time and he wants to right that disappointment once and for all.  I’m also guessing Bill’s looking forward to keeping his wife in Washington and distracted with world affairs while he stays back in New York, left to his own devices.

Hillary pretty clearly wants to be President, but there is still a question of whether at age 65 she really wants to start the 3 year process of endless campaigning.   Does she still have the fire in the belly?  Ronald Reagan was 69 when he was first elected.  Hillary would be 68 on inauguration day. Ronald Reagan, the oldest President to assume office, was 69.

Will anyone challenge her within the party?  Is Joe Biden even that crazy?