New England Patriots vs Houston Texans: Analysis, Predictions, Match Ups, and Odds

The New England Patriots (14-2) will attempt to beat Houston Texans (10-7) in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs this Saturday, where both teams will face off at Gillette Stadium for the 2nd time this season.

Analysis

The Patriots enter the showdown with an impressive record of all time against (7-1) the Texans with their only loss coming in 2010 without the presence of Brady. Along with this stunning record, the Patriots are currently 16-3 during the Playoffs when Tom Brady is under center at Gillette. The Pats hope to add to both records with a decisive win this Saturday.

A large reason the Patriots could walk away with a victory is the recent emergence of their defense, led by Middle Linebacker Dont’a Hightower and Corner Malcolm Butler. Throughout the course of the season, the Patriots surprisingly led the league in fewest points allowed per game at 15.6. This leads myself and many others to believe that New England holds a significant advantage on both sides of the football.

On the other side of the turf, led by former Bill Belichick, assistant coach Bill O’Brien, is one coach who can’t boast the same postseason success. (O’Brien and the Texans have only won 3 playoff games). With the best ranked defense this season, The Texans are hoping for an upset of the ages that will differentiate itself from their only other playoff matchup in 2012 in which New England walked away with a 41-28 win to advance to the AFC Championship game.

The Texans are coming into this game after a tough fought win against the Derek-less Raiders where Houston’s offense finally began to start clicking as the 5th year QB Brock Osweiler found his rhythm for the first time. Osweiler boasted some of his best stats of the season including a completion percentage of 56%, which was the highest since week 11.

Osweiler also tallied up an impressive 168 yards and 1 touchdown pass without throwing any interceptions. Coming into Foxborough, The former Denver Bronco will be forced to prove himself on one of the largest stages against one of the most dominant teams in the AFC.

Both teams are no strangers to each other as they played at the same location during week 3 of the current season in which New England walked away with a dominant 27-0 win with the presence of their Rookie third string Quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

Match Ups

If any defense is capable of slowing the Patriots down it might just be the Texans. Despite Week 3’s 27-0 blowout loss earlier this season, Houston leads the league with the best statistical defense this season. Including the least amount of offensive yards allowed per game (301.7) and racking up a franchise high 34 sacks. Throughout the 2016-2017 season, The Texans have proven their defense is top tier as they’ve captured the rank of one of the best front sevens in the league. In reality, this unit could pose somewhat of a threat to New England’s offensive line that has been known to be inconsistent, but it’s still unknown if it will make a difference. After all, this is the team that just knocked off the Raiders with Matt Moore at Quarterback.

Possibly the only Patriots unit under pressure has to be the somewhat suspect Offensive Line. During the 2015-2016 season, the Patriots ranked among the worst in pass protection allowing 38 sacks and ranking 7th in the league for allowing 98 QB hits. However with the return of Dante Scarnecchia in 2016, the former Patriots assistant has revitalized the unit allowing only 24 sacks and ranking amongst the top 5 for run blocking and ninth for pass protection, a significant improvement from last year. However The Houston Texans rank amongst the top of the league for defensive front sevens so it will be interesting how things fare out.

Odds

Matchmakers have the Patriots pulling out a 16 point favorite, one of the largest in the past few years, and rightfully so. The game should be another cakewalk for the New England Patriots to the AFC Championship where they will either face The Kansas City Chiefs or Pittsburgh Steelers.

Final Prediction

Patriots are able to neutralize The Texan’s pass rush leading to multiple easy touchdowns by Legarrette Blount, Julian Edelman, and even Malcolm Mitchell. On the other side of the football, the experienced Patriots are able to put pressure on Brock Osweiler and force turnovers leading to a couple of easy scores to blow up the box score.

Final Score: Patriots Win 31-10

*Game coverage begins at 8:15 live from Foxborough, MA on CBS Sports.
*All stats gathered from ProFootballRefrence