What's Next for Boston's Future?

Upon hearing that former mayor , I started thinking about how Boston has changed during the past 40 years. Who would have thought Boston would be where it is, today? Looking forward, what will Boston be like 40 years from now, or even in just 10?

Based on the pattern established over the past several decades, Boston’s population will probably grow around 5 percent (although some predict much higher numbers). If so, the city will be home to 648,473 residents in 2020, an increase of 30,879 people. Meanwhile, Greater Boston will most likely grow, too, with over a hundred thousand more people moving in and around our city, every day.

Where will all these people work? Well, during the past half century, our local economy has run on the engines of five industries: banking and financial services, high-tech, colleges and universities, hospitals and research facilities, and tourism. 

We’re fortunate to have these industries. Barring some catastrophe, each will continue to grow during the next ten years. Where businesses will want to - and be allowed to - expand is one of government’s responsibilities. It can foster growth through sensible, responsible zoning and taxation policies.

Looking at where certain types of industry are clustered now, we can see where the growth should be focused, in the future.

Seaport / Innovation District versus Downtown Crossing

I still don’t quite get what the goal is in the Seaport / Innovation District (SPID, for short). Is it supposed to become another financial district? Is it supposed to be the Back Bay? Is it supposed to be East Cambridge?

The way it is now, it seems the goal is to throw the spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks. I’m not sure this makes much sense (plus, why pay city planners to do nothing more than sit back and wait?). 

There are acres of undeveloped land in the SPID. Whenever you read another company has “moved to the Innovation District”, what it really means is that they’ve relocated to Fort Point Channel, or the Waterfront, because there’s nothing to “move into” in the Seaport. It’s endless parking lots with barely anything built on it.

Let me offer an alternative to businesses thinking of moving to the SPID.

If you were to look at Boston on a map, you’d see an already-existing neighborhood in the city that is 1) convenient to public transportation; 2) near major highways; 3) just a couple miles of the airport; and, 4) within walking distance to several, very popular places to live. Oh, and it has plenty of empty office space.

It’s called “Downtown Crossing”. You may have heard of it.

All the talk these days is about start-up business incubators - about ways to get small companies up and running. Since these businesses don’t need a lot of space in the beginning, why not offer them the chance to move to and grow in a place like Downtown Crossing, where they can hop on the subway or walk home, where restaurants and coffee shops already exist?

Back Bay versus Financial District

I don’t understand why we’re encouraging the construction of towers in the Back Bay instead of in the Financial District, but right now there there are more than a handful of proposals to build offices, hotels, and apartments in the middle of the neighborhood. Commercial real estate developers want to build in the Back Bay because it commands a higher price per square foot than the Financial District, but all the city has to do is say, “No.” If developers aren’t allowed to build in the Back Bay, they’ll cave in and end up doing so in the Financial District.

I’ve been a staunch supporter of new development along the “spine” of the Back Bay, but mainly when it involves constructing housing - because they are largely residential, already. And, I’m wary of tall buildings just like everyone else.

It makes sense for banks and legal firms to stay in the financial district. Along the borders of the South End and Back Bay, sure, some low/mid-rise towers might be acceptable, but we already have a financial district. That’s where these office towers belong. 

Clusters in other neighborhoods

The other downtown Boston neighborhoods each have their own strengths.

The Longwood Medical Area and the West End are where hospitals, medical offices, and research facilities are being built. I say, keep it coming. 

Fenway West has seen new housing go up, almost non-stop, during the past decade, turning Upper Boylston Street into what will one day be a grand boulevard. These mid-rise apartment complexes work as a buffer between the bars and restaurants surrounding Fenway Park and the cute, appealing residential neighborhood that hides behind them.

Fenway East, from the foot of Mission Hill to the Museum of Fine Arts to Northeastern University, is becoming more institutional. I see no reason why this growth should be limited. Nearby, new dormitories are being built for Northeastern, MassArt, and Berklee College. They are going up roughly within the borders of their existing campuses. Let them build! 

Emerson College moved out of the Back Bay and into Downtown Crossing (DTX) in the 1990’s, solidifying that neighborhood as residential and helping DTX develop a younger, more vibrant (and safer) feel. Now there’s a rumor is that Suffolk University is considering a move out of Beacon Hill into DTX, as well. Perfect. Out of tour residential neighborhoods and into the commercial ones.

What’s next

Inadequate attention has been paid to how our city will grow during the next ten years. First, we were willed into a sense of complacency during the early years of this new century by the healthy economy and the “do anything and everything - it will work” attitude. Then, with the recession, any sort of long-term planning went by the wayside - no reason to plan for the future when its very existence was in doubt.

Now that our economy is about to turn the corner, we need to focus on what’s ahead.

About this column: John A Keith is a freelance writer and real estate agent who lives and works in the South End.