Instant Replay: Patriots Must Improve Rush Defense to Take Down Forte and the Bears

Last week’s win against the Jets was just plain ugly. New York’s offense, which I had insulted repeatedly, totaled five drives of 10 plays or more. In fact, their first three drives of the game consisted of 12, 10 and 12 plays respectively. They also succeed in turning many of those long drives into points. New York scored on their first five drives of the game before their offense whimpered to a halt in the second half. So, phew, what do all of these stats tell us? Simply, the Patriots’ defense needs to play better against the Bears.

I kept wondering whether the Patriots were purposely playing a bend-but-don’t-break defense or just performing poorly? I couldn’t understand why they’d let the bungling Jets’ offense eat up yards, but when you look deeper into the statistics, it’s easy to understand why the Jets found success. New England struggled to stop New York’s rushing attack, which allowed Geno Smith to sit pretty in the pocket and toss the ball around. During the first half, the Jets ran the ball 62 percent of the time and, as a result, were able to penetrate deep into New England territory on each drive.

The Jets did all of their damage with running backs Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. This week, the Bears roll into town with one of the best running backs, Matt Forte. So, should the Patriots be worried? Yes. However, can they beat Forte? Again, yes. Forte has been far less effective rushing the football than he has been catching it. He has averaged only 64 rushing yards per game. The question then becomes, how do you stop him? If the Patriots see Forte lining up in the “home” position--behind Cutler--I’d watch for a run. If he lines up off-set, he’s likely to go out for a pass. And when he does, chip away at him like you did against Marshall Faulk in SuperBowl 36.

Ah, the memories.

Patriots’ Offense

Brady and the offensive line’s massive improvement over the past three weeks has helped guide them to victory. During the first four weeks of the season, Brady threw for only 195 yards per game, on average. Since then, he’s up to around 300 yards per game. During that same time span, his completion percentage rose from 59.1 percent to 64.2, and his yards-per-attempt spiked from 5.8 to 8.4. An improved line has helped Brady extend plays and better scan the field. How much has the line improved? From weeks 1-3, they held an average pass-block efficiency of 73.4, according to Pro Football Focus. Over the past three weeks, that statistic has increased to 81.66.

In other words, the offense is back and ready to take advantage of the Bears’ Cover-3 defense, which has struggled in recent weeks. Their top cornerback, Charles Tillman, is out for the season and the Bears might be without up-and-coming cornerback Kyle Fuller. That leaves their secondary vulnerable to deep passes. Mike Reiss noted an interesting stat this past week. During the Patriots’ first four games, Brady was 7-of-32 on passes thrown at least 15 yards. During his last three games, he’s completed 17-of-25 passes of the same range.

Patriots’ Defense

The Patriots’ pass defense is perfectly fine, despite the crazy animosity directed toward cornerback Darrelle Revis. Yes, the guy is not God. He cannot perform miracles whenever you make a wish. So, now that we’ve figured that out, can we all agree this guy has absolutely transformed their secondary? For example, the unit has improved dramatically on third downs. A year ago, the Patriots’ defense ranked 27th overall on third downs, and opponents were averaging 14 third downs per game. This year the unit ranks eighth in the league. The defense has also improved significantly in opponent’s yards allowed, opponent’s yards-per-play and opponent’s plays-per-game. So, I’d expect the Patriots to handle a hobbled Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall this week with little problem.

Instead, the issue will be managing Bears’ running back Matt Forte, who will likely be the Patriots’ main player in focus. Forte leads all NFL running backs with 434 receiving yards on 52 receptions. His ability to make plays after the catch is second to none. He leads all running backs and receivers (yes, I said receivers) with 392 yards after the catch. The closest player to him, Fred Jackson, is 114 yards shy of that number. With the absence of Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones, as well as some noted communications problems up front, the Patriots will have their hands full with the seventh year running back.