"The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet."
Damon Runyon – renowned author and gambler
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The first Saturday in May means something in our collective sports culture: the run for the roses, the Kentucky Derby. Louisville’s Churchill Downs will be in full glory, with the sights, smells, and sounds of the most watched and wagered horse race in the world. Bourbon, tobacco and horse flesh will penetrate the air and stimulate the olfactory systems of all trackside fans. It is a truly authentic and American event, oftentimes bathed in the endless Kentucky sunshine. One may even tear up as the overflowing crowd croons “My Old Kentucky Home.”
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Kentucky colonels in suits and women with funky hats will buzz and prance about the landscape. Old friends will reunite, and new acquaintances will form. If you have never had the occasion, I would urge one and all to make a pilgrimage to Louisville on a forthcoming Derby Day.
Beyond this festival of the senses is the real work ahead: the handicapping of this race. Which one of these precocious adolescents will win?
Early speed will dominate any pace scenario analysis. There is more speed in this race than when those Secret Service agents high tailed it out of the Caribe hotel in Bogota. If you are looking for counsel on such matters, I will refer you to nationally recognized prostitution expert Republican Senator David Vitter of Louisiana. But I digress: If you want to try and find a winner at Churchill, pour yourself a mint julep, take out your juke box money, and keep reading!
No fewer than six of the entries show a history of breaking early from the gate and racing to the front in the first turn. This hot pace should provide a great opportunity for horses that close late or stalk the pace to win and be adorned with a bountiful blanket of fresh roses.
The contenders:
Take Charge Indy: This strapping son of super sire AP Indy comes to the Derby as the champion of the Florida Derby. Two time Derby winner jockey Calvin Borel is absolutely brilliant at Churchill – his home track. Flashes speed early, but has shown a tactical stalking style both at Gulfstream and Arlington Park as a two year old. Dangerous.
Creative Cause: California based, 71 years young trainer Mike Harrington brings this gray colt east to compete in the big one. Earned a triple digit speed figure in his big win at the San Felipe in March. Great ability to stalk and fire late. Great workout on April 30. Has finished in the money in eight out of eight lifetime races. Look for him late.
Daddy Nose Best: Seasoned brown colt with improving speed figures. Trainer Steve Asmussen shipped him in to Louisville in early April. Two six furlong workouts under his saddle. This bettor always looks long and hard at colts that spend quality time at Churchill early in the season. Familiarity with the surroundings can make for a happy horse. World class but recently slumping Garret Gomez in the irons.The only entry in the field with more than one win at races over a mile. Intriguing.
Alpha: Another stalker who likes to come from off the pace. Son of Bernardini, and therefore has the best breeding of any colt in the contest. Fired a scalding hot workout at Belmont on April 28. Nosed out by front running Gemologist in the Wood Memorial. May be his day.
I’ll Have Another: One of my favorite names for a horse ever! Well-bred and comes off of two big wins at Santa Anita. You have to like the long six and seven panel workouts leading up to the race. Do not discount him.
Bodemeister: Too much early speed. Says here he gets crushed by pace, but hard to overlook his triple digit speed figures. Did not race as a two year old.
Union Rags: A lot of people like this son of Dixie Union. Seems to give uneven efforts and closed too late at the Florida Derby. Maybe Jockey Leparoux can get him to move earlier?
The pick: I am going to waffle! Bet $2 on both Daddy Nose Best and Creative Cause to win. It is hard to narrow a twenty hose field down to just one. …
Enjoy the race!
