Here’s What The Newest El Niño Winter Forecast Says About Snow In MI

Michigan has been watching El Niño strengthen for months, and the latest in a round of 2026-27 winter forecasts confirms what others have said about the potentially record-setting climate pattern.

El Niño is expected to rearrange storm tracks across the country, generally favoring a more active southern storm track while bringing warmer conditions and less snow to large parts of the northern United States, AccuWeather said in its new 2026-27 winter forecast released Wednesday.

Subscribe

The forecast is predicting a warmer start to winter across Michigan and limited lake-effect snow across the state.

However, some lake-effect snow events could still be possible later in winter, especially if the Great Lakes remain largely ice-free into January and February, according to the forecast.

Overall, Accuweather forecasters believe there will be less than normal snowfall across Michigan through next April.

The forecasters also predict warmer temperatures through winter with average temperatures 3 degrees higher than normal. Some parts of northern Michigan could see average temperatures eclipse 4 degrees higher than normal, according to the forecast.

"The heating demand across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast will be much less compared to 2025 based on our forecast," AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

The broad pattern is consistent with what federal forecasters have been watching for months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in September that El Niño was strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent chance it would become a very strong event during the fall and winter. NOAA put the chance of a historically strong El Niño during October through December at 75 percent.

AccuWeather went further, saying the developing El Niño has the potential to become the strongest on record, surpassing the powerful events of 1982-83 and 1997-98.

El Niño develops when unusually warm water in the equatorial Pacific changes atmospheric circulation and storm tracks thousands of miles away. During winter, it often pushes the main storm track farther south, increasing precipitation across parts of California, the Southwest, Gulf Coast and the Southeast while tilting the northern tier toward warmer conditions.

That does not mean every week of winter will follow the script. Cold outbreaks and major snowstorms can still occur in areas expected to finish the season warmer or less snowy than average.

AccuWeather forecasters said the 2026-27 snow map may look almost like the reverse of last winter. The Sierra Nevada, Great Basin and central and southern Rockies could get an early start to the snow season, while much of the Northeast, Midwest and Northwest is forecast to finish with below-average snowfall.

The Plains may start winter relatively snow-starved before the storm track shifts later in the season, increasing snow chances in January and February. Even in the Northeast, where seasonal snowfall is generally expected to run below average, one or two major storms could substantially change final totals.

Winter Across The U.S.

If you're planning to travel this winter, here's what AccuWeather forecasts for the rest of the country:

Northeast: Below-average snowfall is expected across much of the region, with northern New England closer to or above average. A larger East Coast snowstorm is possible later in winter.

Plains: Snow may be limited early in winter, with better chances in January and February. Parts of the southern Plains could be cooler than average.

Southeast and Mid-Atlantic: Wetter-than-average conditions are favored, with some snow possible in the southern Appalachians. Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes also could be a concern.

California, Southwest and Rockies: Repeated Pacific storms could bring heavy rain and mountain snow, especially to California and the central and southern Rockies. The Southwest may turn cooler and wetter later in winter.

Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies: The region may see more dry stretches, with below-average snowfall favored overall.