Michigan Winter Weather Forecast For January, Early February

DETROIT, MI — It’s too soon to pack away the mittens, hats and scarves. Mild winter weather sweeping into the area probably won’t last.

Forecasters with AccuWeather.com have released an updated winter weather forecast for the rest of January and early February in Michigan. The weather is expected to be unseasonably warm over the next couple of weeks as mild Pacific air travels to Michigan. Surface winds will prevent cold air, often called a polar vortex effect, from traveling from Canada to Michigan.

Maybe. As most weather services do, AccuWeather hedged its outlook.

"There are some indications that the polar vortex may weaken enough to allow a southward discharge of arctic air prior to the end of the month," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelo said in a news release. “Even in cases when there is certainty about the weakening of the polar vortex, you never know for sure where the discharge of cold air will be directed, such as western versus eastern U.S.”

Enjoy the mild weather while you can.

As the month ends, the eastern part of the United States is expected to trend colder and stormier. “But the question is how much,” Pastelok said.

A major winter storm setting up over the central states next week should miss Michigan but could affect a large swath from Flagstaff, Arizona, to as far north as Minneapolis, AccuWeather said.

In the 10-day forecast, The Weather Channel says temperatures won’t drop below freezing in Detroit until Friday, Jan. 27. Temperatures this weekend could reach 50 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, the National Weather Service said.

“We have already had two days (Jan. 11-12) exceeding 50 degrees,” the NWS noted in its forecast discussion. “Looking further at climatology records, five days of 50+ for January (which looks doable) is fairly rare, occurring about once out of every 10 years.”

Photo: Motorcycle weather is coming early, thanks to a warming trend. Photo by Elvert Barnes via Flickr Commons