Michigan March 8 Presidential Primary: Trump, Clinton Lead Polls

DETROIT, MI – Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump are expected to carry delegate-rich Michigan Tuesday as voters in the Great Lakes state make their picks, a handful of polls suggest.

Michiganders have had plenty of face time with the candidates leading up to the primary Tuesday, when polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m Eastern Time. Michigan awards its delegates proportionately on both sides of the aisle, meaning any candidate who receives at least 15 percent of the vote gets a share of delegates.

Both Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are angling for key minority voters after campaign stops and Sunday’s CNN debate in the embattled city of Flint, where residents were exposed to dangerous levels of lead in their drinking water supplies in a man-made disaster. The water crisis in the largely poor and largely African-American city has been a major theme as both candidates campaign on issues of racial and economic inequality.

On the other side of the aisle, GOP candidates made their pitches to voters Thursday in the Fox News Republican Debate at Detroit’s historic Fox Theatre, where Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kaisch each presented themselves as the best candidate to stop Trump's surge and defeat Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee, in the Nov. 8 general election.

In the all-important delegate count, Clinton and Trump are leading their opponents, Clinton by a much safer margin than Trump.

She has 1,130 delegates of the 2,383 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination, compared with 499 for Sanders.

Among Republicans, Trump leads with 384 delegates, compared with 300 for Cruz, 151 for Rubio and 37 for Kasich. The get the GOP presidential nomination, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates.

Michigan will award 59 Republican delegates and 148 Democratic delegates.

Both candidates who want to be the standard bearers of their parties suffered losses in weekend primaries — Clinton to Sanders in Maine, Nebraska and Kansas; and Trump to Cruz in Kansas and Maine. Rubio also picked up a win Sunday in the Puerto Rico Republican primary.

In Tuesday's Michigan primary, Trump has an 18-point lead over his nearest challenger, Cruz, who is polling less than a percentage point ahead of Kasich, the governor of neighboring Ohio, according to a RealClear Politics polling average.

An American Research Group Poll, same poll that forecast Kasich’s second-place finish in New Hampshire, gives Kasich a 2-point advantage over the New York real estate tycoon. Kasich picked up an endorsement from the Detroit Free Press a week ago.

The newspaper cited his ability to work across party lines and said his “unpretentious policy wonk persona allows him to begin conversations his more combative competitors wouldn’t indulge" as necessary.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is expected to cruise to an easy win with a 20.4-point lead, according to the RealClear Politics polling average.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey released Sunday shows support for Clinton and Sanders is split fairly evenly among white voters, 49 percent to 48 percent, respectively, but Clinton pulls far ahead of Sanders, 76 percent to 21 percent, among likely African-American voters.

Sanders, who wasn’t able to poke holes in Clinton’s so-called “firewall” of African-American voters in a string of Super Tuesday primaries in the Deep South, repeatedly put Clinton on the defensive Sunday in the Democrats’ testiest debate so far.

He mocked her support of Wall Street and trade deals he says have combined to decimate America’s middle class, taking a strong jab change of heart on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which he said was politically opportunistic.

"I am very glad that Secretary Clinton discovered religion on this issue but it's a little bit too late," Sanders said. "Secretary Clinton supported virtually every one of the disastrous trade agreements written by corporate America."

The respected NBC/WSJ/Marist poll shows Trump leading across almost every demographic group — even among white evangelicals, where he leads Cruz by a point, 30 percent to 20 percent. Cruz pulls ahead of Trump, 43 percent to 30 percent, among Republican primary voters who describe themselves as “very conservative.”

The Detroit News gave Trump an anti-endorsement Sunday, saying that Michigan Republicans should help stop the bombastic billionaire and that a vote for him is likely a vote for Clinton in November.

“Trump has brought the crudity of reality TV into the presidential campaign, hurling insults and outlandish boasts alike,” the newspaper wrote in its editorial. “He may not be a racist, misogynist, nativist xenophobe. But too often he sure sounds like one.”

The newspaper didn’t endorse a candidate in either contest

How Delegates are Awarded

Republicans will award the party's 59 delegates proportionately among candidates who receive at least 15 percent of the vote. Democrats will award 148 delegates proportionately, too, although the process is more complicated.

Under the Democrats’ rules, some of the state’s delegates will be awarded proportionately according to how well the candidates do in each of the 14 congressional district. Another group of delegates, usually allocated to state and locally elected Democrats, will be awarded proportionately based on the statewide vote.

What Else Is on the Ballot?

Voters must choose a Republican or a Democratic ballot.

There are also a handful of local issues on ballots — in Birmingham, for example, voters will decide on a proposed “road diet” charter amendment that would prevent city officials from changing the lane configuration of West Maple without a vote.

You can view your local ballot and find your polling place on the Michigan Secretary of State's web page.

» Photo illustration using candidate photos by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons