Minnesota Could 'Go Red' According To FiveThirtyEight

MINNESOTA — Political analysts assume Minnesota is a lock to go blue in all statewide races, including the presidential election. That's because a Republican hasn't won a statewide election here since 2006.

And Democrats have won Minnesota in the past 11 presidential elections, dating back to 1984 when every state in the nation went Republican except the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

But a new report from the data scientists at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog suggests that the state has been shifting rightward, similar to the change that has undergone in Wisconsin over the past two decades.

"There is evidence that Minnesota is becoming redder over time, with 2016 being a particular inflection point," the report reads.

"In 1984, the state was 18.2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. But in 2016, for the first time since 1952, Minnesota voted more Republican than the rest of the U.S."

Previously, Minnesota's white, working class voters have been reliably progressive, especially in areas like the state's Iron Range. However, that group is voting Republican at higher rates each election.

Biden is still leading the state over President Donald Trump, according to polling, but far from comfortably.

"Democrats went from carrying Minnesota by 7.7 points in 2012 to carrying it by just 1.5 in 2016," Nathaniel Rakich in FiveThirtyEight writes.

"Tellingly, the counties that shifted the most toward Trump were also the counties with the highest concentrations of white people without a college degree."

Read the full report at FiveThirtyEight.