State of the Race: Who's Leading Minnesota's Congressional Campaigns?

The Land of 10,000 Lakes isn't seen as a toss up by any major polling outlets or analysts in the presidential race, but Minnesota does have some interesting House races to watch this election cycle. The state features three competitive congressional races this year, including one between Republican Jason Lewis and Democrat Angie Craig, which has drawn national attention. Craig and Lewis are hoping to replace Republican Rep. John Kline, who's held the seat since 2003 but is retiring this year.

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, currently lists Minnesota's Second, Third, and Eighth Congressional districts as "competitive," with one race leaning Republican, one leaning Democrat, and the third race listed as a "toss up."

State of the Race

Leaning Republican

• Minnesota's Third Congressional District: Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen vs. Democrat Terri Bonoff

Cook Political Report currently rates this race as leaning Republican. A recent poll conducted by KSTP backs up this finding. A focus of Bonoff's campaign has been to tie Paulsen to Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. In her first ad of 2016, Bonoff didn't mention her opponent but did go after Trump. The poll released last week indicates the effort to tie Trump to Paulsen has not worked so far.

Toss Up

• Minnesota's open Second Congressional District: Democrat Angie Craig vs. Republican Jason Lewis

The race to replace Kline in the Second District is tightly contested, though a recent KSTP poll gives Craig a slight advantage. The poll did not include Independent Party candidate Paula Overby. The district, which includes suburbs in the southern part of the metro such as Burnsville, Apple Valley, Rosemount, and Eagan, features one of the most competitive races this year and is receiving national attention.

Leaning Democrat

• Minnesota's Eight Congressional District: Democrat Rep. Rick Nolan vs. Republican Stewart Mills

While the Cook Political Report finds that Nolan has a slight advantage over Mills, a new poll says otherwise. KSTP reported that in the rematch of one of the closest congressional races in the nation two years ago, Republican Stewart Mills currently leads Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan by four points, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Solid Democrat

• Minnesota's First Congressional District
• Minnesota's Fourth Congressional District
• Minnesota's Fifth Congressional
• Minnesota's Seventh Congressional District

Solid Republican

• Minnesota's Sixth Congressional District

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