Good News On People Moving To Minnesota, But Larger Population Challenges Loom

By Alec Williams and J. Patrick Coolican, Minnesota Reformer

February 23, 2026

Minnesota’s population grew from 2024 to 2025, with the state receiving a net influx of residents from other states for the first time since 2018, and just the third time in the past 15 years, according to new estimates from the Census Bureau.

The noteworthy increase in domestic migration is offset by a sharp decline in international migration and a continued slow pace of natural population growth, which raises concerns about long-term demographic trends.

The chart below summarizes the components of population change. While the state’s population continues to increase, growth started to decline in 2017, dropped significantly following the COVID-19 pandemic, and has not fully recovered.

The uptick in inbound domestic migration is notable given the persistent politicization of the issue. Conservatives are fond of blaming outbound migration on Minnesota’s progressive political environment, and especially our higher-than-average taxes. That argument has now weakened several years in a row.

The influx of 8,300 new net residents continues a trend of recovery from heavily negative domestic migration during the pandemic era. Minnesota’s national ranking for total domestic migration jumped from 41st in 2022 to 17th in 2025, highlighting a dramatic swing. The figures are also notable because they constitute our first look at migration trends since a wave of progressive legislation in 2023, when state lawmakers made widely recognized advances in social and reproductive rights, and passed transformative investments in education, infrastructure, health care and other public services.

Democratic-Farmer-Labor lawmakers have argued that quality-of-life investments would yield economic gains, and the latest Census data offers credible evidence for their point.

Although on par with recent years, Minnesota’s population growth would have been far stronger if not for net international migration falling considerably. If international migration had remained at the average of the previous three years, the state would have gained 14,000 more residents, and our overall population growth would have been the highest in the past 15 years.

Despite the welcome news on domestic migration, alarming trends persist in the latest population data. Like most states, Minnesota’s rate of natural population growth has been steadily declining — raising the specter of a shrinking workforce, slowed economic growth, and a higher burden of care for seniors and the disabled.

We need more people to take care of the elderly and people with disabilities, but we also need them on our construction sites, in our classrooms, and in our research labs if Minnesota is to live up to its great promise.

The chart above shows natural population change and its components, revealing a decline that began over a decade ago, but accelerated during the pandemic. In 2011, Minnesota had 28,408 more births than deaths; by 2025, that number was just 12,071.

The birth rate fell from 12.83 births per 1,000 residents in 2011 to 10.76 in 2025 — a decline of 16.1% that translated to 5,790 fewer newborns in 2025.

Deaths are also on the rise.

In 2011, the death rate was 7.5 deaths per 1,000 residents, and it is now 8.69. This almost 16% increase resulted in 10,547 more deaths last year compared to 2011.

A nationwide study from researchers at the University of Minnesota found that the death rate for early adults in 2023 was 20% higher than in 2019. The researchers estimate that more than 1.5 million deaths in 2022 and 2023 would have been averted if the United States had mortality rates similar to those of other high-income countries.

Taken together, these trends are disturbing and pose important questions for state policymakers. Minnesotans are delaying having children and choosing smaller families. Experts posit a number of causes, including high costs for housing, health care and child care, as well as widespread concerns about things like climate change and political polarization. But no study is conclusive.

Like the birth rate, there is no singular explanation for rising mortality. Researchers point to a decades-old trend in excess deaths driven by drug overdoses, gun violence, auto accidents and preventable heart disease.

Despite the bad news, Minnesota is better off than most states, with the 14th highest ratio of births to deaths in the country, outpacing the national average as well as our neighbors in the Midwest. But the trendline is not going in the right direction for anyone.

According to the state demographic center, deaths are projected to outpace births by 2038, placing additional pressure on migration flows to ensure a stable population.

What can we do, if anything, to counter these challenging trends?

First and foremost, we must continue a proud tradition of welcoming newcomers, including support for immigrant communities amidst ongoing attacks from the federal government. But migration is volatile and can’t be relied on for consistent growth.

For reasons both economic and humanitarian, we should seek a stronger understanding of what is driving lower fertility and higher mortality.

According to the latest Gallup poll, the share of Americans who anticipate having better lives five years from now is only 59.2% — an all-time low. It stands to reason that people who are less hopeful will be less likely to start families and more likely to turn to drugs and other dangerous, destructive behavior.

But what generates hope and personal agency?

Practical steps like increasing the supply of affordable housing, improving health care access and quality, improving child care and public schools, and making other investments to help Minnesotans thrive are an essential first step.

The goal is not to dictate how Minnesotans should live or to advocate for any particular family structure. It is to remove the barriers that prevent people from building the future they want.

A society that creates this true sense of freedom is one worth investing in.

The Minnesota Reformer is an independent, nonprofit news organization dedicated to keeping Minnesotans informed and unearthing stories other outlets can’t or won’t tell.