Ope! US Census Says It Overcounted Minnesota Residents

MINNESOTA — The United States Census Bureau admitted Thursday that it overcounted the number of residents in Minnesota. The error may have resulted in Minnesota being able to retain all of its seats in Congress.

The Post-Enumeration Survey found that the Census overcounted Minnesota's residents by 3.8 percent of the state's population, amounting to 189,312 people.

Following the Census — which takes place once a decade — Minnesota was widely expected to lose one of its seats because its population hasn't kept pace with other states, particularly in the Southwest.

However, thanks in part to Minnesota having the best 2020 census participation rate, New York state will lose one of its seats in the House.

It was extremely close, though. If 89 fewer people had registered for the U.S. census in Minnesota — or 89 more people in New York — Minnesota would have lost the 435th seat in Congress to the home state of the Big Apple.

The overcounting of Minnesota may have played a role as well.

A total of eight states — Utah, Minnesota, Ohio, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Hawaii — were overcounted, officials said.

Six states — Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Illinois, Florida, and Texas — were reportedly undercounted.

"The release of these PES estimates assists us in understanding how well we did this decade, state by state, in our efforts to count everyone living in the United States," Census Bureau Director Robert L. Santos said.

"Transparency is a critical aspect of scientific integrity. That is why we are releasing these results to the public. Our assessments – including the 2020 Census quality indicators, the PES, and the Demographic Analysis released earlier this year – offer valuable insights into the quality of the 2020 Census counts. Although none of the assessments alone can be considered definitive since no “true count” of the population exists, today’s PES results suggest that some states experienced undercounts or overcounts."

Other findings, according to the report:

• 37 states did not have estimated statistically significant undercounts or overcounts
• 14 states are estimated to have had an undercount or overcount – a net coverage error statistically different from zero – meaning they were either undercounted or overcounted

"Achieving an accurate count for all 50 states and DC is always a difficult endeavor, and these results suggest it was difficult again in 2020, particularly given the unprecedented challenges we faced," Santos added.

"It is important to remember that the quality of the 2020 Census total population count is robust and consistent with that of recent censuses. However, we know there is still more work to do in planning future censuses to ensure equitable coverage across the United States and we are working to overcome any and all obstacles to achieve that goal."