Analysis: Warmington Goes Out With A WMUR Wimper

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

The most interesting moment of the WMUR gubernatorial debate was when it started: 9 p.m. on the Thursday before Election Day.

If something significant had happened — if one of the candidates had experienced a Joe Biden brain freeze or Adm. Stockdale stumble — who would know? Most voters are watching “Thursday Night Football” or the new season of “Slow Horses,” not a political debate.

Wrapping up at 10 p.m. Thursday means it’s too late for the losing candidate to even get a “Hail Mary” ad up on TV in time to make a difference.

Fortunately (?), nothing happened in the final faceoff between Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Cinde Warmington that hadn’t happened before.

Ayotte said “opioid lobbyist.” A lot.

Warmington said “Donald Trump” and “downshifting.” Also a lot.

In other words, the two repeated what they’ve been saying for months.

Voters who think Ayotte’s doing a good job, who support a property tax cap and want more natural gas in New Hampshire know who they’re voting for.

Voters who think the phrase “Ayotte-Trump economy” makes sense, who oppose capping property taxes and like the sound of a “net zero” energy policy have their candidate, too.

With the RealClearPolling average showing Ayotte leading by about nine points, that’s bad news for Warmington. And nothing happened on WMUR Thursday night to change that math.

The WMUR moderators, with the able assistance of the Union Leader’s Kevin Landrigan, gave the two candidates ample opportunity to throw a curveball, but they both stuck with their previous pitches.

Ayotte, for example, continued to work in the opioid issue again and again. In fact, more minutes were spent discussing Warmington’s record on Oxy and other related topics than on any other single issue.

When Warmington objected to Ayotte calling her a “liar,” Ayotte responded by reminding viewers about the former lobbyist’s less-than-accurate testimony on behalf of OxyContin before the state legislature.

When Warmington announced her support for legal weed, Ayotte deadpanned, “I guess I’m not surprised that an opioid lobbyist would want to legalize recreational marijuana in this state.”

It was a no-win situation for the Democratic nominee, who yet again had to argue that she didn’t do anything wrong as a pharma lobbyist, but also said, “I’ve been very clear that I regret that work.”

Warmington also struggled with an energy policy question. After Ayotte hit her over her “Net Zero by 2040” plan, Warmington insisted, “She cannot get away with standing here and saying that net zero means eliminating fossil fuels. I said we need to reduce them.”

“She said she wanted to eliminate fossil fuels,” Ayotte interrupted, inspiring Warmington to respond, “Well, we should eliminate them someday.”

D’oh!

Opposing the property tax cap, which polls show is a +20 issue among New Hampshire voters, probably didn’t help Warmington much, either.

What Thursday night really offered voters wasn’t a debate between two competitive candidates for governor, but a recap of Warmington’s many missteps in this race.

Why not walk away from her Net Zero 2040 nonsense of two years ago? Why not embrace a natural gas pipeline like Northeastern Democratic governors Maura Healey of Massachusetts and Kathy Hochul of New York are doing? Why not say, “If the legislature passes a constitutional amendment banning personal income taxes, I’ll support it!”?

Perhaps most important, why not hold an open press event, apologize for the Oxy lobbying and answer every question that reporters — even one from New Hampshire Journal — can think of to ask?

Put these problems to bed, then you can spend the rest of the campaign saying “the Trump-Ayotte economy” nonstop.

Warmington wouldn’t do it. Some progressives say it’s because she’s a true believer who really wants an income tax to fund schools in the name of social justice and believes Greta Thunberg is right about global warming.

OK, so then why run for governor? If being a good progressive is more important than getting elected governor, why run?

The first rule of politics is “get elected.” The second rule is “get reelected.” There is no third rule.

If that’s not how you’re playing, then you’re not in the game.

The Warmington campaign, like the late-night WMUR debate, was over before it began.

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.