Ayotte Defies Democratic Wave To Win Reelection

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

In the worst political climate for New Hampshire Republicans since 2006, incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte held on to win a second term Tuesday night, even as Democrats swept the rest of the field.

Fox News called the race for Ayotte before midnight, but The Associated Press waited until nearly 1 a.m. to do the same. Ayotte led Democrat Cinde Warmington 51% to 47% with 84% of the vote counted.

Ayotte didn’t declare victory Tuesday night, telling a crowd of supporters at a Salem restaurant she was in no hurry.

“We are going to wait for every single vote to be counted tonight, but I want you to know that we’re very, very optimistic about the results and where things stand,” Ayotte said. Two hours later, the race was called.

“Thank you, New Hampshire! It’s the honor of my life to serve as your Governor, and I’m ready to continue working together to keep our state safe, prosperous and free,” Ayotte posted on social media.

As of 1 a.m., Warmington had not released a public statement conceding the race. Her loss came as her fellow New Hampshire Democrats were sweeping contests at the federal and state levels, and by wide margins.

Ayotte anticipated there would be anti-GOP headwinds, and she campaigned aggressively throughout the campaign, even as polls showed her with a solid lead. She was up by six points in the final RealClearPolitics polling average. Ayotte’s campaign kept voters focused on Warmington’s work on behalf of OxyContin two decades ago, turning the phrase “opioid lobbyist” into a ubiquitous campaign catchphrase.

Affordability was also at the center of the race, with Ayotte and Warmington offering competing approaches to high housing costs, property taxes and energy bills. Ayotte emphasized housing construction and permitting reforms, her opposition to income and sales taxes, and her support for a cap on school property tax levy growth. Warmington argued that Ayotte’s budget decisions shifted costs onto local taxpayers and called for greater state investment in public schools, affordable housing and child care. She opposed Ayotte’s expansion of Education Freedom Accounts. Both candidates pledged to veto broad-based income or sales taxes.

Ayotte also outraised Warmington by close to an 8-to-1 margin, helped by the fact that the Democratic Governors Association declined to donate a single dollar to Warmington’s campaign.

While DGA President Gov. Andy Beshear, D-Ky., wrote Warmington a personal check, the fact that his organization ignored a race in a purple state that came down to just a few points is going to create problems for the potential 2028 presidential candidate.

“Gov. Beshear is going to get a lot of grief for not giving Warmington any support,” said Republican communications professional Matthew Bartlett of Darby Field Advisors.

Ayotte’s win came the same night Republicans lost high-profile governors’ races in far redder states like Texas, Iowa and Ohio. Her victory in deep-blue New England amid a GOP wipeout is almost certain to raise her profile with the national party.

“Governor Ayotte deserves enormous credit for having the strength to escape the gravitational pull of Donald Trump’s disastrous night that cost so many other good leaders (and also Ken Paxton) their races in NH and around the country,” said GOP strategist Jim Merrill.

“The President asked voters to pretend he was on the ballot and they did big time — by turning out to rebuke him or by staying home to reject him. Who could have known that a closing message of needless tariff battles, war again in the Middle East, brushing off crushing cost-of-living increases, and gold-leaf ballrooms isn’t a winner?”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.