Ayotte Leads, Sununu And DiLorenzo Keep It Close Despite Anti-Trump Mood

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Republicans are keeping the New Hampshire races close despite the anti-Trump sentiment in the Granite State, though the governor’s race is closer than many in the party would like.

At the same time, warning signs for the New Hampshire GOP are growing, with six weeks of high gas prices and erratic White House politics still to come.

A New York Times/Siena University poll released Thursday puts Democratic U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas ahead of Republican former Sen. John E. Sununu, 50% to 45%, just outside the margin of error. On Thursday, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center gave Pappas a larger advantage, 50% to 42%.

Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte remains ahead of Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington in the UNH survey, 47% to 43%, down from 10 points in August.

UNH also reported 67% of New Hampshire residents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, the highest disapproval recorded during either of his terms. Just 32% approve.

“The numbers are still a warning, not a verdict,” said Republican State Committeeman Bill O’Brien. “I’ve been in and won enough tough political fights to know that no poll knocks on a door, listens to a neighbor, or earns a vote. People do.”

Warmington has trailed in both polling numbers and fundraising throughout the campaign, and the uptick in her support comes even as Ayotte’s approval rose to 51 percent, its highest level since January. Political professionals say that is yet another sign the NHGOP’s problem is the overall political climate in the midterm elections, not the quality of its candidates.

Perhaps the most surprising number for campaign watchers is Republican businessman Anthony DiLorenzo’s head-to-head with Stefany Shaheen, daughter of U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. In the open NH-01 race, Shaheen leads DiLorenzo by just four points, 46% to 42%. Interestingly, DiLorenzo is leading among voters over age 50, the most likely age group to turn out in a midterm.

“This survey shows that Granite Staters are tired of Washington insiders and politicians running for office for their own self-enrichment,” DiLorenzo said.

The results offer Republicans a mix of opportunity and anxiety with less than six weeks until Election Day. Ayotte continues to draw independent support, while Sununu faces a political environment in which many voters want their next senator to stand up to the president.

The Times/Siena poll found 54% prefer a Senate candidate who would provide a check on Trump, compared with 24% who want one who supports him. Even 11% of Republicans said they prefer a candidate who stands up to Trump.

Veteran GOP strategist Pat Griffin said the president is making an already challenging election harder for Republican candidates.

“It’s all bad. This is the toxicity of Trump. Hard to win general election races when the environment is this bad,” Griffin said.

“The good news for Republicans is that the governor’s race helps keep the GOP column alive.”

Ayotte’s numbers illustrate why.

Among independents in the UNH survey, she leads Warmington 51% to 30%. She also has the support of 93% of Republicans, while Warmington draws 84% of Democrats.

And Ayotte remains better liked than her challenger. Forty-three percent of likely voters view the governor favorably, compared with 39% who view her unfavorably.

Warmington’s ratings are significantly worse. Just 18% have a favorable opinion of her, while 45% have an unfavorable opinion. Another 20% do not know enough about her to judge.

That leaves Warmington with a net favorability rating of minus 27 percentage points, compared with Ayotte’s plus four.

In the Senate race, however, the UNH poll shows Democrats consolidating behind Pappas following the primary.

Among voters who identify as progressive, 97% support Pappas, up 18 points since August. He also leads among self-described moderates, 64% to 33%. Sununu’s support among moderates has dropped 7 points since August.

Yet Pappas’ advantage does not reflect a substantial edge in personal popularity. His net favorability rating is minus 14, nearly identical to Sununu’s minus 15.

The Times/Siena poll also found Republicans more satisfied with their Senate nominee than Democrats are with theirs. Nearly 85% of Republicans said they were satisfied with their party’s choice, compared with 75% of Democrats.

And 56% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents described their party as divided, compared with 35% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

Those findings suggest Republican unity remains an asset, even as the broader political environment favors Democrats.

Griffin warned that unity alone may not produce the turnout Republicans need.

“The problem is the base is also unexcited by Trump. He’s not on the ballot and therefore a lot of MAGA types stay home. Trump’s numbers with independent voters are a real problem as well,” he said.

But O’Brien points to a potential asset for the GOP: The ballot question allowing Granite Staters to vote to cap their local property taxes at a time when high costs are a hot electoral topic.

“New Hampshire Republicans have six weeks to let hardworking Granite Staters know that we hear concerns and with the property tax cap question on the ballot we are providing real solutions. I believe in our candidates and volunteers, and so will New Hampshire voters.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.