For NH Democrats, AOC Is A-OK For 2028, According To St. Anselm College Survey Center Poll

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

Can AOC win the FITN?

The new St. Anselm College Survey Center poll found few surprises about the 2026 elections, but it also had some eye-popping numbers about the 2028 presidential race.

For example, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg remains at the top of the Democratic field with 29% support, U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has jumped from third place (10%) to second (17%) since March. Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom slipped from 15% to 11%, and everyone else — including former Vice President Kamala Harris — stayed in single digits.

If the biggest shock is Ocasio-Cortez moving up, the second biggest is the lack of Democratic support for the first Black woman vice president and the party’s nominee just two years ago, Harris. Her four percent is far below the 27.3 percent she has in the RealClearPolitics average, giving her a 10-point advantage against second-place Newsom.

Also worth noting: Gov. Andy Beshear (D-Ky.) U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), former ambassador and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, and U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D- Calif.) have all recently traveled to New Hampshire to help the Democratic cause — the latter several times — but those visits appear to have had little impact.

Noticeably absent from the rankings: The Democrat who won the last two legitimate FITN contests, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. (State party leaders corrupted the 2024 Democratic primary to protect the fading Joe Biden.)

The Vermont socialist narrowly edged out Buttigieg in 2020, 25.6% to 24.3%. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) won another nine percent, which means there were already plenty of voters willing to vote for far-left candidates six years ago. Is Ocasio-Cortez’s rise a sign that the Democratic Socialist wing of the party is ascending?

The Granite State Gurus — a collection of campaign professionals, grassroots activists, and party insiders — are split. Some say New Hampshire remains an old-school Democrat state, as evidenced by the strength of candidates like U.S. Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander. And while Buttigieg is hardly a blue-dog Democrat, he’s not with the DSA, either.

“For now, it is Mayor Pete’s to lose – he came up short only by about 4,000 votes last time,” one Democrat insider said. “He has an interesting and lasting popularity in the Granite State.”

At least one Granite State Democratic operative says that while his party “is not even close to deciding who it’s nominee is going to be,” the dark horse candidate is this cycle’s Barack Obama.

“Enter James Talerico. If (key word) he wins the Senate race, I think he wins the Democratic nomination. With enough work, I think he’ll put together ‘Obama community leader and hope/change’ plus ‘Clinton southern charm vibes’ minus feeling like he’s a part of the very unpopular Democratic apparatus.”

“If he loses, I’ll take ‘other/unsure’ over the field.”

Another Guru with New York connections says AOC is O-U-T.

“AOC simply doesn’t have the policy chops. Some on the far left are also angry with her for not endorsing Democratic Socialist candidates in New York because she’s playing it too safe.”

But is it a coincidence that Ocasio-Cortez is on the rise among Granite State Democrats at the same time that DSA candidates in Colorado, New Jersey, and New York — not to mention next door in Maine — are winning their primaries? If a Graham Platner can blow out an incumbent Jeanne Shaheen-style governor in a primary, is it impossible to imagine Ocasio-Cortez edging out Buttigieg and Newsom in New Hampshire?

“AOC’s numbers are eye-catching given she hasn’t even been to New Hampshire yet,” one campaign veteran said. “Yet she can build a crowd anywhere across America more than any other candidate. She could absolutely grab the Bernie torch and catch fire.”

One person who believes in Ocasio-Cortez: Vice President JD Vance. Asked this week who he thought the leading 2028 contender is, Vance said, “I think it’s got to be AOC. I know that’s probably conventional wisdom.”

Her response? “I hope he is (the GOP nominee).”

She may get her wish.

Vance continues to lead the New Hampshire field, though that lead has closed noticeably in recent months. In March, the St. A’s poll had Vance at 46% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 27%. Now it’s Vance 37%, Rubio 30%.

A May 2026 NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll found Vance at 43% and Rubio at 10%. In between was Donald Trump Jr. at 15%.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who’s currently using a book tour in an attempt to revive his political fortunes, was at four percent in the NHJournal poll. In the latest St. A’s poll, he didn’t even show up.

Granite State Gurus overwhelmingly believe Vance will top the ticket in 2028, with some suggesting there won’t even be a primary.

“It’s Vance all the way unless he passes on running,” one GOP campaign professional said. “Then it’s Rubio. I do not see anyone else coming close, or maybe even running at all. It will not be a race in 2028 for the Republicans.”

Most insiders agree—but not all.

“Rubio will beat Vance in New Hampshire if he runs, likely fueled by his rising star and independent voters who will pull a GOP ballot,” one operative predicted.

And Tom Rath, dean of the New Hampshire political strategists, went even further, predicting the 2028 FITN winner for the Republicans would be “None of the above — at least in New Hampshire.”

“There will emerge a non-designated candidate who does not offer Trump, Chapter 2, but instead a non-personality-based campaign of traditional Republican policies and values,” Rath added.

“Where’s Ike when we need him?”

And DC-based Democratic strategist Joel Payne has a word of warning for Republicans who think the “Socialist” label will save them in 2026 or beyond:

“The dynamism and organizing prowess in the Democratic Party right now is coming from its left flank. Republicans would be wise not to underestimate some of these fresh new leaders rising up.”

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.