High Turnout, Shift Of Votes Assisted Biden In New Hampshire

CONCORD, NH — An increase of tens of thousands of new voters as well as a shift in voter choices due partially to fewer candidates on the ballot led to New Hampshire choosing to award its 4 Electoral College votes to former Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday.

In 2016, the competition for swing-state, purple New Hampshire was a massive undertaking. Rallies were held, surrogates were sent, and both political parties and their supporters and activists did everything they could to get-out-the-vote for then-businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Polling data wildly speculated Clinton would win by anywhere from the single digits to 11 or 15 points — data very few people thought was accurate at the time. As with most polling, as an election nears, things tend to tighten, and in 2016, in the waning days of the race, Trump surged and the Real Clear Politics average of the last week of polling called for Clinton to win by less than half a percent — a prediction that was accurate when all the votes were counted: Clinton bested Trump by 2,736 votes.

In 2020 though, while Trump's reelection effort had him leading in two very early polls, in February and May, a lifetime in the world of politics, polls showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a firm lead in the state of anywhere from 14 percent in late September to 8 percent in late October. The lead was presumed by pollsters to be so solid they stopped polling; with RCP even stopping the average for the state. The last poll released two weeks before the election by St. Anselm College showed Biden with an 8-point lead and that turned out to be close to reality — Biden won by 7.2 percent.

But the level of the victory was beyond resounding when looking at the actual numbers.

The Trump Victory team in the Granite State said Tuesday it made more than 2.4 million voter contacts while more than 40 staffers and tens of thousands of volunteers worked the state. According to the unofficial data, all that work paid off: Trump's team was able to increase its numbers by 20,000 more votes, about 6 percent more in actual votes when comparing 2016 and 2020. However, it was no match for what Biden and Democrats were able to do.

The New Hampshire Democratic Party said Tuesday it had made 3.3 million voter contacts during the campaign and the 900,000 extra contacts when compared to Republicans appeared to make the difference in the presidential campaign: In 2016, Clinton received a little less than 349,000 votes. Biden, however, received just shy of 425,000 — an increase of 76,395 votes for the Dems' nominee.

Higher Turnout, Fewer Candidates

Two major factors appear to be at play when comparing the results of 2016 and 2020: New voters going to the polls and fewer independent candidates.

Secretary of State Bill Gardner said Friday, before issuing his turnout prediction Monday of around 800,000, that the 2016 election turnout of 755,000 voters was the highest amount of voters ever casting ballots in the Granite State. In the presidential race in 2016, 732,267 voters cast ballots for one of the five candidates (there were about 12,000 write-in votes and thousands of blank ballots, too). In 2020, according to unofficial returns, 71,543 more voters cast ballots for president (not including write-ins and blanks).

There were also fewer candidates on the ballot in 2020.

In 2016, along with Clinton and Trump, Gary Johnson, running as a Libertarian again, was on the ballot and received nearly 31,000 votes. Green Party candidate Jill Stein was also on the ballot and earned about 6,500 votes. Both Johnson and Stein ran in 2012 and saw their numbers increase as a protest vote against Trump and Clinton. Rocky De La Fuente was also on the ballot in 2016 but won fewer than 700 votes in 2016.

In 2020, only the Libertarians were able to gain ballot access, after a lawsuit to lower the signature threshold requirement. Jo Jorgensen, the party's nominee, received 13,235 votes, or a little more than a third of the votes Johnson received four years before.

When figuring in the 20,000 vote increase for Trump between 2016 and 2020, two easy presumptions can be made: Some of those voters were new voters and probably a fraction of Johnson's former voters — while more new voters, a fraction of Johnson's voters, and probably all of Stein's voters cast ballots for Biden.

County, Community Comparisons

In every county in the state, Trump increased the number of votes he received compared to 2016.

Biden also built upon Clinton's numbers. And two counties stand out for Democrats: Hillsborough and Rockingham counties.

Both counties are the first and second most populous counties in the state, with both Manchester and Nashua, the state's largest cities, located in Hillsborough County, so it would be expected they would have increased turnout. But the turnout increase for Biden was massive. According to the unofficial returns, 22,755 more people voted for Biden for president in 2020 than voted for Clinton in 2016 in Hillsborough County — an increase of nearly 23 percent. In Rockingham County, it was 20,070 more votes for Biden compared to Clinton, or a 25 percent increase. Increases in those two counties made up 60 percent of the new votes for Biden.

In Amherst, Biden was able to earn about 1,000 more votes than Clinton while Trump only increased his count by 71 votes.

In Bedford, around 1,700 more people voted for Biden than Clinton while Trump increased his numbers by about 230 votes.

In Concord, Biden earned around 2,500 more votes than Clinton did while Trump received 171 more votes.

Around 1,300 more Exeter voters cast ballots for Biden than Clinton while 35 more people voted for Trump in 2020 when compared to 2016.

In Hampton, nearly 2,200 voters chose Biden over Clinton while Trump's numbers increased by 410 votes.

Voters in Londonderry chose Trump over Clinton and Biden but both candidates gained voters. Biden received nearly 2,800 more votes than Clinton while Trump received around 560 more votes.

More than 2,300 voters cast ballots for Biden than Clinton in Merrimack while Trump lost around 270 votes.

In Milford, about 800 more voters cast ballots for Biden compared to Clinton while Trump increased his numbers by just shy of 300.

The Biden campaign increased their numbers in Nashua compared to Clinton by nearly 4,100 votes while Trump increased his vote totals in the Gate City by 330 votes.

In North Hampton, Biden gained about 450 votes while Trump gained seven.

Portsmouth went for Clinton in 2016 by a nearly three-to-one margin and Biden was able to build on that lead adding 1,752 votes. Trump also gained votes — 204.

Trump received more votes than either Democrat in Salem in 2020 not unlike 2016. But both he and Biden increased their numbers: Biden increased Clinton's numbers by 1,540 while 656 more went for Trump.

Windham was another community Trump won while both candidates increased votes: Biden received 1,060 votes more while Trump received 371 more votes.

Got a news tip? Send it to tony.schinella@patch.com. View videos on Tony Schinella's YouTube channel. Follow the New Hampshire Patch Politics Twitter account @NHPatchPolitics for all our campaign coverage.